Last Week: 3-2
Season Record: 33-34-3

We bounced back nicely after our worst showing in almost two years. The Vols pick was a swing and a miss, and Oklahoma State showed a lot more fight than I expected, but the rest of Rivalry Weekend treated us well so we will take it. And most importantly, we cashed our Lock of the Year with Alabama covering the six at Auburn, even if it got a little sweaty late. That keeps our Lock of the Year record perfect, and it means I do not have to wear Ohio State gear on this week’s podcast. Huge win all around.

This weekend is always a tricky one because the slate is smaller and the margins are tighter. Even so, I found five plays I really like, so we are rolling ahead with the full lineup as usual.

I will say this though. I am staying away from three of the four Power 4 conference title games. If you twisted my arm and made me pick them, I would lean toward all three underdogs: BYU, Alabama, and Indiana. But those are not our official plays, so let’s get into the real picks.

Kennesaw State @ Jacksonville State (+2.5)

We will keep this one simple. Jacksonville State beat Kennesaw State by nine on this field just three weeks ago. The Gamecocks have the number one running back in the entire FBS in rushing yards in Cam Cook, they rank fourth nationally in rushing offense, and now they face a bottom thirty rush defense.

Kennesaw State typically struggles on the road. They have only two road wins all year, one back in October and one last week against a four and eight Liberty team in double overtime. They do have a decent passing game and the Gamecocks can be vulnerable there, and I actually like Owls QB Amari Odom who has a top ten QB rating in the country. But the Owls simply play worse away from home, not only in terms of wins and losses, but statistically across the board.

Jacksonville State is undefeated at home, they have already beaten the Owls once, and they have a great running back and a solid quarterback in Caden Creel who will not light up the stat sheet but also will not make many mistakes. With the home team getting almost a field goal, we like the Gamecocks in this spot and will happily back them.

The Pick: Jacksonville State +2.5

Troy (+23.5) @ James Madison

James Madison has been one of the best Group of 5 teams all season long and very well could end up making the CFP, so they have plenty to play for here. The Dukes are 11-1, boast a top 20 offense, and have a top 3 defense in terms of yardage allowed. They are no joke for sure.

But when you look closer, only one of those wins has come against a team with a winning record (Old Dominion at home in mid-October). So they are good, but this is a lot of points to be giving an above average Troy squad.

Yes, Troy is 8-4, but all four losses came against teams .500 or better, and only one of those losses was by more than the 23.5 they get here. They also just beat a solid Southern Miss team on the road by ten points to lock up their spot in this championship game. They are bottom half in both total offense and total defense, but their passing game is actually pretty decent and should be good enough to keep this one respectable.

There is no doubt James Madison wins this game, but this is a lot of points for a conference championship. So we will take the Trojans.

The Pick: Troy +23.5

North Texas (-2.5) @ Tulane

The only thing I do not like about this game is that Tulane gets to play it on their home turf. Beyond that, I love everything about North Texas winning this game and covering the tiny spread.

The Mean Green have been one of the most entertaining teams in the country all season, and I genuinely think they deserve the Group of 5 bid to the CFP. This offense is the real deal. They are number one in the nation, averaging more than 46 points and 516 yards per game, and they are balanced enough to beat you on the ground or through the air. Their passing game is the real separator though, ranking second in the country at nearly 325 yards per game.

Tulane is a very good team at 10-2 with some quality wins, but this matchup exposes their biggest weakness. Their pass defense ranks 113th nationally, which is a bad recipe against the Mean Green attack. Yes, Tulane should run the ball well because North Texas struggles against the run, but the Green Wave will have a harder time throwing against NT’s top 12 pass defense. If North Texas jumps out early,  Tulane could have trouble keeping pace.

Both teams lost their head coaches to bigger jobs this week, but both will finish the season on the sidelines. I expect some back and forth because both offenses can score, but in the end, even on the road, North Texas simply has too much firepower and we are totally fine giving less than a field goal.

The Pick: North Texas -2.5

Duke (+3.5) @ Virginia (Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte)

What a fantastic season by the Cavaliers. Picked by most experts to finish near the bottom of the ACC, here they are just sixty minutes away from an ACC Championship and a potential berth to the CFP. Tony Elliott has done a masterful job in his fourth year in Charlottesville. And this is no fluke, as Virginia owns several quality wins, including a 34-17 victory over this same Duke team just three weeks ago in Durham.

Unlike my prediction in Jacksonville State vs Kennesaw State though, I think Duke will adjust and deliver a much stronger showing in the rematch. QB Darian Mensah struggled for most of that first meeting, and I do not see that happening again. He is the sixth best passer in the nation in total yards and can make plays with his legs, neither of which he was able to showcase the first time around.

I do not love Duke’s pass defense against Virginia’s Chandler Morris, who looks fully recovered from the concussion he suffered a few weeks back. But Duke just hammered a solid Wake Forest team, who by the way beat this Virginia team not long ago, to punch their ticket to this game. I love the Cavaliers story, but this is one of the least talented potential Power 4 champions we have seen in a long time, and I like Duke’s roster from top to bottom more.

In Charlotte, playing with house money after not even expecting to be here a week ago, getting more than a field goal feels like the right side.

The Pick: Duke +3.5

Miami (OH) @ Western Michigan (-2.5)

Here is another rematch, and just like Duke vs Virginia, I am betting on a reversal of fortunes. And trust me, this one stings. I went to Miami (OH), my son goes there now, and I believe he will actually be on the field cheering at this game in Ford Field. But even with all that, I just do not have enough confidence in the RedHawks here.

The biggest reason is at quarterback. When Miami beat Western Michigan 26-17 in Oxford back on October 25, they had star QB Dequan Finn running the show. Finn has since been kicked off the team by HC Chuck Martin, and the fallout has been messy. Miami tried second stringer Henry Hesson, which went poorly, and then turned to third stringer Thomas Gotkowski. Credit to him, he helped Miami beat Buffalo and Ball State the last two weeks, but neither of those teams are going bowling. Now he faces one of the best pass defenses in the country, and while Gotkowski isn’t a statue back there, he simply doesn’t have the athleticism to threaten a defense or extend plays the way Finn did.

Neither offense is explosive, and both defenses are solid, so I do not expect many points. This feels like a grind-it-out conference championship game. Western Michigan has the slightly better run game, and they have a more seasoned QB in Broc Lowry, who can beat you with both his arm and his legs. The Broncos have also won eight of their last nine and have been rolling since that Miami loss five weeks ago.

Miami’s offense is simply not the same without Finn, and in a tight revenge spot with a small spread, I like Western Michigan to get it done.

The Pick: Western Michigan -2.5

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