Well, as they say, all good things must come to an end, and our nice stretch this season hit a big thud last week with an 0-3 stinker. In fact, that is the first time in two years we have had a winless week, so yes, it stung. And yes, I officially hate the Bengals.

If you follow my college picks, you know we had a similar stretch with a 2-3 week and a 1-4 week a month or so ago, and we bounced back nicely. Back then I talked a lot about patience and routine. Keep doing the research. Keep watching the trends. Stay consistent. When you do that, things usually swing back to the level we expect. That is how this stuff works, and we have to accept the down weeks because they are going to happen whether we like it or not.

That said, we feel good about this week with a fresh new slate, so let’s get into it.

Last Week 0-3
Season YTD: 18-15

Steelers @ Bears (-2.5)

Let me start by saying I went against the Bears last week against the Vikings and we lost. I am still not totally sold on this team, but I am warming up to them more each week. They are much better than they were last year, and that is a huge credit to first year head coach Ben Johnson. But Caleb Williams, in his second year, has also matured and deserves credit too. He has not done anything spectacular statistically, and he is not winning anyone their fantasy leagues, but he is limiting mistakes with only four interceptions and he has engineered the most fourth quarter comeback wins in the NFL this year. He does not get rattled. And believe it or not, this Bears offense is fourth in total yards, so they can certainly move the ball.

This Bears team does not have many marquee wins behind their 7-3 record, and they have definitely been fortunate to win some tight games. But they are 5-1 in one score games, which means they finish games, and two of their three losses have come on the road against good competition in Baltimore and Detroit. They are much better at home, and now welcome a Steelers squad I have been down on for weeks. They just lost their quarterback Aaron Rodgers and will rely on journeyman Mason Rudolph. Rudolph is not terrible, but if you have read my pieces the past few weeks, you know the Steelers are bottom five in both total offense and total defense, and Rudolph is not going to fix either of those issues.

I am still skeptical about the Bears making a real playoff run, but I do think they take care of business at home against a bad Steelers team. With the line less than a field goal, we are comfortable laying the points.

The Pick: Bears -2.5

Jets (+13.5) @ Ravens

Yes, I know what you’re thinking. OMG, Bierman has officially lost his mind. He cannot seriously be picking the Jets. Well, yes I am, and let me explain.

First, do not get me wrong, they are a bad team and have earned their 2-8 record. But if we dig just a little deeper, we can see they have remained competitive in almost every game. Six of their eight losses have been within one score, and only one loss has been by more than this spread, the 15-point home loss to the Cowboys.

The other reason I like this is because they finally decided to move away from Justin Fields as the starter, which can only help this struggling offense. Tyrod Taylor is not Lamar Jackson, but he is a fourteen-year veteran who knows what he is doing, will not be rattled on the road, and believe it or not, actually has a .500 career record as a starting quarterback.

The Ravens have looked better the past few weeks, but this is still far from a perfect team and they are average at best on both sides of the ball. The Jets defense is not nearly as bad as most people assume based on the record. They are actually middle of the pack in several important statistical categories.

I do not expect New York to threaten to win the game, but 13.5 points is so many in an NFL matchup. It just feels like too big a number against a Jets team that tends to keep games close, and now has an upgrade at quarterback that I think the team will rally around.

Pick: Jets +13.5

Giants @ Lions (-10.5)

We have made a nice penny on the Lions this year, and we are going back to the bank this week. We intentionally stayed away last week because the Philly game felt like a trap, and the Lions play MUCH better in the comfy confines of Ford Field than they do on the road. Three of their four losses have come away from home.

Their losses have also come against good teams. Against bad teams, Detroit does not just take care of business, they pound them. Their last three home wins have come by an average of 17 points.

The Giants have been a nice story with rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart, and there is plenty to be excited about for their future. Thankfully for them, he appears to be back this week from concussion protocol. But this team fired Brian Daboll for a reason. There are a lot of issues on both sides of the ball, especially with a defense that ranks fourth-worst in the league and will have a very hard time slowing down the fifth-best offense in the NFL.

Add in a top-five Lions defense confusing a good but still-learning rookie quarterback who is coming off a head injury, missing his star wide receiver, and missing his best running back, and this number feels way too low to me. Detroit wins by at least two touchdowns and gets right after their disappointing loss in Philly.

The Pick: Lions -10.5

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