We bounced back from our first winless NFL week in two years with a respectable 2-1 performance, so we’ll take it. That said, the Lions were a real head-scratcher, nearly losing outright to a bad Giants team without its starting quarterback. Strange one for sure.

Call us stubborn, but we’re going back to that Silver and Blue well this week. We’re also fading a team that won for us last week, because frankly, they just aren’t that good.

This is one of the best football weeks of the entire year. Rivalry Week on the college side, three Turkey Day games, a bonus Black Friday tilt, and the full Sunday slate for the pros with no byes. So many great matchups and I cannot wait to dive in.

Wherever you are this Thanksgiving, Sandman Nation, we wish you a very happy holiday. Hope you enjoy great food, laughs, smiles, family, friends, and of course a whole lot of football.

Last Week 2-1
Season YTD: 20-16

Packers @ Lions (-2.5)

If you follow my CFB Best Bets, you know I give out one “Lock of the Year” every season, and I just dropped that pick for Rivalry Week. If it loses, I have to show up on the podcast next week wearing full Scarlet and Gray, which would be a pretty brutal outcome for me. But that’s how confident I am in that annual pick.

On the NFL side, I don’t usually declare a true “Lock of the Year,” but if I had one, this would be it. I genuinely could not feel stronger about a matchup than the Lions in this spot laying less than a field goal.

Let’s get the obvious out of the way. Last week’s stinker was bizarre. They somehow let the Giants lead most of the game and needed overtime to escape. I cannot fully explain how it happened other than Jameis Winston playing the game of his life, and I don’t think Detroit prepped for that kind of performance.

But I’ve said this many times here, usually right before we cash with this team: the Lions are still the best top-to-bottom roster in the NFC and I fully believe they will be in the Super Bowl. They frustrate me at times, last Sunday being the perfect example, but their offense might be the most explosive in the league. And the defense, before the Giants debacle, had been playing much better over the last month and still rank top 10.

The Packers are 7-3, but take a closer look. They have a very unimpressive resume overall. Their only two wins over winning teams were against the 6–5 Steelers and in Week 1 at home against this same Lions team. Meanwhile, the Lions are a different animal in Detroit, and the Packers are a significantly worse version of themselves on the road. In fact, they’re giving up more than 80 extra yards per game away from Lambeau.

And Detroit’s offense is absolutely heating up, averaging more than 455 yards per game over the last three weeks.

Detroit looked shaky last week, no doubt, but Dan Campbell is one of the best coaches in football and he simply will not let that happen two games in a row. At home. On Thanksgiving. In a division game. With revenge from week 1 in mind. I expect the Lions to handle business and do it convincingly.

The Pick: Lions -2.5

Bears @ Eagles (-7)

The Bears were good to us last week and covered, but only because they were playing another extremely fraudulent team in the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Bears under Ben Johnson are a completely different team than they have been in years, and the future is bright in the Windy City. But let’s not get carried away. 

Despite their nice looking 8-3 record and a four game winning streak, the Bears just aren’t that good. They have one win over a team with a winning record, and that was last week at home by three points against the 6-5 Steelers with their backup quarterback. The offense has shown signs of life under second year quarterback Caleb Williams, but again the competition has been spotty at best. And their defense is bottom six in the league, which is a real problem against an angry Eagles team.

Philadelphia is coming off one of the strangest losses of the season. The Eagles went down to Dallas, built a 21 point lead, and then somehow fumbled it away in every way imaginable, including turnovers, bad decisions, and penalties. But this is still a top ten scoring defense, one that has been very opportunistic in forcing turnovers all season, and Philly has lost only once at home, and that was to the 9-2 Broncos almost two months ago.

I don’t love what I’ve seen from the Eagles offense on a week to week basis, but the defending Super Bowl champs are in a completely different stratosphere than the Bears. Pissed off about the Dallas loss and back at home, I like Philly to cruise to a comfortable win in this spot.

Pick: Eagles -7

Rams @ Panthers (+10.5)

The Rams sit at 9-2 and are one of the best teams in the NFC. QB Matt Stafford, in his late thirties, is having an incredible season and legitimately has a chance to win this year’s MVP award. Throw in a terrific WR corps with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, plus Kyren Williams at RB, and this offense is legitimately scary. They also have a top ten defense. So yes, the Rams are very good and they should win this game.

But as you have read here before, double digit spreads on the road in the NFL are very difficult to cover. And it is not as if this is the Titans or Saints. The Panthers are 6-6 and have had a very respectable season, albeit with some inconsistent ups and downs, but they typically play much better at home. While Carolina’s overall offensive numbers are below average, they excel in the rushing game and are top ten in that area. And while the Rams defense is stout, they are much more susceptible to giving up yards on the ground. I anticipate the Panthers trying to grind it out and, when they do put it in the air, having Bryce Young throw plenty of short, safe passes that essentially function like runs.

Add in the long cross country trip after the holiday, and even though the Rams are the better team and have been playing lights out, this feels like a spot where they come out a bit sluggish and let the Panthers hang around. LA wins in the end, but Carolina covers this inflated number.

The Pick: Panthers +10.5

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