Our Thanksgiving special and Black Friday gem both crashed, as the Lions and Eagles turned into complete turkeys. Thankfully, the feisty Carolina Panthers saved the week by not only covering but winning outright against the Rams.

We took a small step back, but we are still comfortably above .500 and have three plays we really like this weekend, all fairly hefty favorites. So let’s dive in.

Last Week 1-2
Season YTD: 21-18

Steelers @ Ravens (-5.5)

They always say to bet what you know, so we are going back to the well and fading a familiar foe. I continue to believe the Steelers are the biggest frauds in the NFL, even with a .500 record. I have said it before but it is worth repeating. Pittsburgh is bottom five in the league in total offense AND total defense. They survive on turnovers and red zone stands, but this is not a good football team. Oddsmakers keep giving them far more credit than they deserve, and we are going to keep taking advantage of it. They are coming off a fresh 26-7 beating at home by Buffalo, they have lost three of their past four overall, and they have dropped their past three road games.

Now they travel to Baltimore to face a Ravens team that was embarrassed by Cincinnati on Thanksgiving night in Joe Burrow’s return. I am writing that performance off as a complete outlier. After starting 1-5, the Ravens have fought their way back into the AFC North race, but they must take care of business here. Before that odd loss to the Bengals, Baltimore had won five straight, all by at least seven points. Their defense struggled early in the year because of injuries, but over the past three weeks it has ranked top ten and should suffocate a bad Steelers offense now dealing with Aaron Rodgers publicly calling out his receivers.

Pittsburgh just allowed 249 rushing yards to the Bills, their worst showing against the run in the Steel City since 1975. That sets the stage for Derrick Henry to have a monster afternoon.

We will be all over the Ravens at this number.

The Pick: Ravens -5.5

Bears @ Packers (-6.5)

Similar to the Steelers, we have faded the Bears plenty this season with mixed results. But I still stand by my belief that Chicago is nowhere near as good as their 9-3 record or first place in the NFC North would suggest. They are much better than Pittsburgh and I love what Ben Johnson is building, but they are still pretenders. Their win in Philadelphia last week was impressive and I will give them full credit for that. Beyond that, their only other win against a team with a winning record came back in Week 3 at home against the 6-5-1 Cowboys.

Now they have to go on the road for the second straight week and face a very good Green Bay team. The Packers sit at 8-3-1, have won three straight all by at least seven points, and can take over first place in the division with a win. They will absolutely be ready.

I have to give kudos to Caleb Williams and the Bears offense. They rank top six in the league and they can score quickly. Jordan Love and the Packers have also been heating up at the right time. Love just threw for 234 yards and four touchdowns against a solid Lions defense. So the difference in this game comes down to the defenses, and that is where Green Bay has a clear edge.

Led by the electric and disruptive Micah Parsons, the Packers field a top four total defense and are excellent against the run, which is where Chicago has thrived. On the other side, the Bears sit bottom five in total defense, so Love and Aaron Jones, who looked good in his return last week, should have plenty of success.

Giving less than a touchdown at Lambeau in a critical divisional game, give me the Packers all day long.

Pick: Packers -6.5

Rams (-8) @ Cardinals

The Rams might look familiar because we picked against them last week, and that one turned out great for us with the Panthers winning outright. But the Rams are way too good to string together another bad performance, especially not against a sub-par Cardinals team. Last week was just one of those strange NFL spots. They traveled cross-country, dealt with weird weather, and ran into a Carolina team that always plays much better at home. It happens.

What also happens in the NFL is the better team correcting course the following week, and that is exactly what I expect here. The Rams have a top four passing offense and a top six scoring offense, and Matthew Stafford remains the frontrunner for MVP. He had a rare off day, throwing two interceptions after setting the all-time NFL record with 28 straight touchdown passes without a pick. Even with that, he has only four interceptions all season, which is insane. He also leads the league in touchdown passes with 32 and sits second in QB rating. With Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, and Kyren Williams, this offense is built to torch a below-average Cardinals defense, especially through the air.

Jacoby Brissett is an upgrade over Kyler Murray and he has kept Arizona competitive at times, but not in this matchup. The Cardinals have lost four straight and nine of their last ten. Now they face a Rams team that is angry, focused, and chasing both the NFC West title and the number one overall seed.

This is a bounce-back spot in every sense. The Rams roll here, win by double digits, and we are comfortable laying the points.

The Pick: Rams -8

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