We had another tidy winning week at 2-1 and now sit at 55 % for the season. We have had a lot of success this year picking against the Steelers, but last week they finally stepped up. They beat the erratic and head-scratching Ravens outright and covered with ease. We were right on target with Green Bay handling business at home against a good but not great Bears team. And the Rams bounced back from their Panthers loss in a big way, punishing the Cardinals in the biggest blowout of the weekend, 45-17.

One interesting note about this week’s slate. For a league built on parity and close games, there are five matchups with spreads of 9.5 points or higher. Several potential blowouts are on the table. Will we be jumping on any of them, either riding the favorite or grabbing the big underdog? I will not keep you in suspense. Yes, we do like at least one of those, so let’s get into it and see who we like.

Last Week 2-1
Season YTD: 23-19

Titans @ 49ers (-12.5)

The Titans had a nice win on Sunday in Cleveland, notching their second victory of the season 31-29. A big reason was their rushing attack behind RB Tony Pollard, who had 161 yards on 25 carries and 2 touchdowns. And while rookie QB Cam Ward threw for two touchdowns, he also had one interception, only threw for 117 total yards, and posted a miserable 70.1 QB rating. And let’s face it, they beat another bad team in the 3-10 Browns, also starting a rookie QB.

It’s a positive for Tennessee overall, but it won’t carry over this week as they now have to travel on the road for the second week in a row, this time out west to San Francisco to take on the 9-4 49ers. While QB Brock Purdy has had some inconsistent showings on the stat sheet since his return, the bottom line is the team is 3-0 with him back and has won all three games by double digits. The Niners play in the toughest division in football and find themselves in third place, which means they’re fighting for their playoff and seeding lives and will come ready to crush the Titans.

Despite the recent win, this Titans team is still the worst-ranked offense in the league and will struggle against a solid Niners defense. Before Sunday, Tennessee had lost eight straight, and seven of their eleven losses this season have been by double digits. Their brief momentum takes a big hit this week against Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, and this sixth-ranked passing offense. The 49ers win in a big way and we will happily lay the points in this spot.

The Pick: 49ers -12.5

Lions (+5.5) @ Rams

We won last week backing the Rams in a big bounceback spot against the hapless Cardinals, and they delivered nicely. They now return home to SoFi at 10-3, sitting in first place in the NFC West and holding the overall #1 seed in the NFC. I have written before about Matthew Stafford and how impressed I have been with him this season. At 37, he is a legitimate MVP candidate, leads the league in touchdown passes, and is near the top of several other key passing categories. This team is scary on both sides of the ball and will give the Lions all they can handle.

The Lions record is not as gaudy at 8-5, and they have been inconsistent at times, going 4-4 in their last eight games. Still, they are right in the hunt to win the NFC North and this game is massive for them, so they will show up. And while if you twisted my arm I would probably say the Rams win, I think this game is going to be very close and back and forth all afternoon.

These teams aren’t separated by all that much when you look deeper. In total offense (Lions 3, Rams 4), total defense (L15, R13), rushing offense (L5, R11), passing offense (L5, R3), rushing defense (L10, R11), and passing defense (L19, R16), both clubs have nearly identical rankings across the board. Yes, the Rams have the better record and the cleaner playoff path, but the Lions have plenty of firepower themselves with a strong running game and Amon-Ra St. Brown healthy again.

I like the Lions to keep this close. Getting this many points in a matchup between two very evenly matched teams is good value and we will take it.

Pick: Lions +5.5

Panthers (-2.5) @ Saints

The Saints are not quite as bad as their 3-10 record suggests. They have actually won two of their last four, rookie QB Tyler Shough is settling in a little more each week, and they come home after an impressive road win in Tampa. Confidence is rising, and they did beat this same Panthers team by ten in Carolina just a month ago.

All that said, the Saints still have plenty of issues. Shough is just as likely to throw an interception as he is a touchdown, and he owns one of the three worst QB ratings in the league. The Saints defense is not terrible, but it can be exposed, especially on the ground. That is exactly where I expect Carolina to attack with their tenth-ranked rushing offense.

The Panthers not only beat the Rams two weeks ago in one of the more impressive wins of the  season, they are also coming off a much needed bye to rest and get healthy. This team has not forgotten the home loss they took to the Saints earlier in the year. They are tied for first in the NFC South, they have a real shot to make the playoffs, and Bryce Young continues to show flashes of why he was the number one overall pick.

In a key divisional revenge game and laying only a small number, I like the Panthers to cover comfortably against a team that still is not very good.

The Pick: Panthers -2.5