Last week was frustrating, but it was also a perfect example of what betting the NFL can look like. All three of our picks looked fantastic deep into the third quarter, and a 3-0 week felt very much in play. The Lions were up four, the Panthers were up ten, and the 49ers were up 21, all with about two minutes left in the third.

Then the Rams, Saints, and Titans all went on scoring binges. Even though the Lions game ended close, they were never really going to cover at that point. We still had a real chance with the Panthers, even into overtime, but it just was not meant to be. Thankfully, the Niners hit a late field goal to salvage one win.

Messy, frustrating, and very on brand for the NFL.

That said, we are still on the plus side overall, and we have three more games this week. As we get closer to the playoffs, every matchup feels more magnified, with real implications for postseason spots and seeding. All three games this week will play a role in that picture, so let’s get into it.

Last Week 1-2
Season YTD: 24-21

Rams (-1.5) @ Seahawks

I have been slow to fully jump on the Rams bandwagon, even though I did pick them to win the NFC West in the preseason. At this point, though, I am convinced. Right now, I think this team is the best in the NFC and possibly the entire league. Injuries can always shift things quickly in the NFL, but as it stands, the Rams should be the favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.

I do not love that Davante Adams pulled up against the Lions and will likely miss this game with a hamstring, though there is still a chance he plays. Puka Nacua also had a brief injury scare in that game but returned and appears to be fine. Even with those concerns, the Rams rank second in the league in both yards and points. While the defense is not elite, they have held five opponents to ten points or fewer this season.

Seattle has had a strong season and sits at 11-3, and this game likely determines the NFC West and could impact the number one seed. Their defense ranks fourth overall, but they are slightly more vulnerable through the air, which sets up well for Matthew Stafford and this passing attack. It is also worth noting that while the Seahawks just beat the Colts, they squeaked by at home against a 44-year-old quarterback who had not played in nearly five years. Prior to that, they had not beaten a team with a winning record since October 20, and they have just four wins all season against teams above .500.

In the first meeting at SoFi, Seattle controlled the tempo and kept the game low scoring before the Rams escaped with a 21-19 win. Sam Darnold has been impressive again this season, but he still feels prone to a clunker when the pressure tightens, and this could be one of those spots.

I expect this game to be higher scoring than the first matchup. I do not see the Rams blowing them out, but winning by a field goal or more feels realistic and that’s the side I want to be on.

The Pick: Rams -1.5

Eagles (-6.5) @ Commanders

Has there been a more maddeningly inconsistent team this season than the Eagles? They started 4-0, then lost two straight, then won four more, only to follow that with a three game losing streak. Thankfully, they got the woeful Raiders last week, and maybe that 31-0 beating was exactly what they needed to get back on track.

I am still concerned about this offense, but they did just put up 31 points against an average, but not terrible, Raiders defense, and Jalen Hurts threw for three touchdowns. As uneven as Hurts has been at times, what has been even more baffling is how little they have been able to fully unleash Saquon Barkley this season.

If there is a perfect opponent to help fix that, it is Washington. This is nowhere near the Commanders team that made the playoffs last year. Despite a 29-21 win over the Giants on Sunday, they had lost eight straight before that, and five of those losses came by 21 points or more. Defensively, they are a mess, ranking second worst in the league overall and third worst against the run.

This feels like the spot where Barkley finally gets going. I expect Philadelphia to pound the ball, shorten the game, and control the tempo. The Eagles defense should also frustrate and overwhelm Marcus Mariota and company, making this a fairly low scoring, physical NFC East game.

The Eagles are not going back to the Super Bowl this season and they still have real flaws, but they are clearly the better team here. With playoff positioning on the line, even on the road in Landover, I expect Philly to take care of business and win by double digits.

Pick: Eagles -6.5

49ers (-6) @ Colts

Two months ago, all we were talking about was the Colts and what a great story they had become. Daniel Jones looked reinvented, Jonathan Taylor was drawing early MVP whispers, and Indianapolis was piling up wins. But as is often the case in the NFL, fortunes can change quickly.

A few close losses, some regression from Jones and the offense, and then the season ending injury to Jones completely flipped the script. It was fun to see 44 year old Philip Rivers step back onto the field, and credit to him for nearly leading a massive upset in Seattle. But the production told a different story. Rivers totaled just 120 yards, threw one touchdown and one interception, and finished with a mediocre 73.1 QBR on a steady diet of short passes.

This Colts team once sat at 7-1 and looked like the darlings of the AFC. Now they have lost five of six, sit at 8-6, and are likely headed toward missing the playoffs unless they can pull off a late season miracle. I do not see that starting this week, even at home, against San Francisco.

Indianapolis will try to lean on the run game because it is their only real option, but the 49ers have an above average rush defense. San Francisco does not generate many sacks, but Rivers simply lacks the arm strength to threaten defenses vertically. While the Colts rank top ten in total offense on the season, they are bottom three over the last three games, which tells you exactly where this unit is trending.

Defensively, Indianapolis is solid against the run but second worst in the league against the pass. That is a major issue against a 49ers offense that ranks fourth through the air. Expect Brock Purdy to consistently find Christian McCaffrey out of the backfield, with continued contributions from Jauan Jennings, Ricky Pearsall, and George Kittle.

San Francisco has won four straight and five of six, with every one of those wins coming by double digits. I expect that trend to continue against a plucky but shorthanded Colts team.

The Pick: 49ers -6

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