Last Week: 0-4-1
Season Record: 30-32-3
U-G-L-Y! We have not gone winless on our CFB picks in two years, and there is not much else to say other than these weeks happen now and then. But, this one definitely stung for a while, even deep into Sunday.
We were close late in the fourth quarter with both the Army and Missouri picks, but we all know this is not one of those places where “close” counts.
So we dust ourselves off, put the work and research in again, and hope to come out on the right side this week. We feel good about these five plays and believe they give us a strong chance to bounce back. We have even included our Lock of the Year!
We know it is Rivalry Week and strange things can happen in these bitter matchups. But that does not scare us off when there is value staring back at us. In fact, four of our five picks this week come directly from true rivalry games.
Ole Miss (-6.5) @ Mississippi State
Let’s start with one of the truly bitter in-state rivalry games. This one even has one of the better rivalry nicknames as we head to the Egg Bowl for our first selection of the slate.
Mississippi State started the year with a four game winning streak, so a lot of people forgot how bad this team was last season when they finished 2–10 and winless in the SEC. They are better this year, and they had a couple of solid early season wins against 7-4 Southern Miss and 8-3 Arizona State. But since then they have not been very impressive. They come into this matchup having lost six of their last seven, and the only win in that stretch was by three points over 2–9 Arkansas. Only one of those six losses came by fewer than the seven points needed to cover this spread.
Ole Miss enters this game with a very impressive 10-1 record, with their only blemish coming by one score at Georgia six weeks ago. They have the number three ranked offense in the nation in yards gained, and they should be able to move the ball at will against a porous Bulldogs defense. I especially anticipate Ole Miss leaning heavily on the run game, as Mississippi State ranks in the bottom fifteen nationally at stopping the run.
The only concerning variable is the swirl around Lane Kiffin and whether he stays or leaves for another job. But Ole Miss is an elite team, they are headed to the CFP, and they will want to make a statement against their in-state rival. The fact this line is less than a touchdown is a bit of a head scratcher, but I chalk that up to the usual rivalry game concerns. Either way, we like the Rebels and will confidently lay the points.
The Pick: Ole Miss -6.5
Iowa State (-13.5) @ Oklahoma State
This is our lone pick from a non–traditional rivalry game, but there is still plenty of history and plenty of dislike between these two teams.
Oklahoma State is quite simply one of the worst teams in the FBS, and arguably the single worst in the Power 4 conferences. They are 1-10, on a ten game losing streak, and their only win came in Week 1 against FCS Tennessee-Martin. Only three of their losses have even been within fourteen points. They rank in the bottom twelve nationally in both total offense and total defense.
Iowa State comes in having had an uneven season of their own. After losing four straight, they have won their last two, including a decisive 38-14 win over Kansas. The Cyclones don’t do anything spectacularly and they rank middle of the pack in most categories, but they have QB Rocco Becht and HC Matt Campbell, and I have confidence in both to guide this team over a severely limited and talent depleted opponent. Iowa State is jockeying for bowl positioning and they will want to finish the regular season with a strong performance against a team that simply will not be able to hang with them.
Even in Stillwater, this is a mismatch, and this line is not nearly high enough. We like the Cyclones laying the points here.
The Pick: Iowa State -13.5
Clemson (+2.5) @ South Carolina
Clemson has been one of the more disappointing teams of the 2025 season, right up there with LSU and Penn State. The Tigers began the year ranked fourth in the preseason only to lose their opener to LSU and start the season 1-3. Since then, though, they are 5-2, on a three game winning streak, and look like a team that has finally figured some things out. Preseason Heisman favorite Cade Klubnik is playing better, and the Tigers boast a top twenty passing offense behind his arm.
South Carolina is better than their record suggests. Everyone remembers their meltdown in College Station two weeks ago, but almost all of their losses have come against a currently ranked opponent, with LSU being the lone exception. Quarterback LaNorris Sellers is a good field general who will move the ball and keep his team in it.
One overlooked factor here is penalties. Clemson is one of the least penalized teams in the nation and South Carolina is one of the most. In a game I expect to be tight, those penalties could play a real role. Add in the Tigers’ recent momentum, the fact that Dabo has plenty of pride and will want this 2025 squad to finish a disappointing season with a statement against their dreaded in–state rival, and the simple truth that Clemson has more talent across the board.
They win this game in a close one, so getting almost a field goal feels good here. We will take the Tigers.
The Pick: Clemson +2.5
Vanderbilt @ Tennessee (-3)
This opened at 2.5 and I was immediately all over it, but by the time we are publishing it is now up to 3, so I had to adjust. Nevertheless, I still like this play and it is one of my stronger feels in the past month.
I have just not been sold on Vandy all year. I bet against them in their road matchup against Texas a few weeks ago and cashed, and I anticipate doing the same this Saturday. Yes, they are 9-2, but they have zero wins against currently ranked teams. Both of their losses came on the road against ranked opponents, and that is exactly what they face here in Neyland. In fact, they haven’t beaten a single team with a winning record away from home.
QB Diego Pavia has been a nice story and worthy of the Heisman attention he has gotten, even though he is on the outside looking in at this point.
I have been a big fan of Josh Heupel and this Tennessee team the past two seasons. Despite sitting at 8-3 and being out of the CFP picture, this might be the best team in the country that will not make the playoff. Their three losses came to top ten teams Oklahoma, Alabama, and Georgia.
Both of these teams have great passing offenses and shaky pass defenses, so there will be plenty of back and forth and plenty of points. But I like Tennessee to pull away in the second half behind a rowdy Neyland crowd. This is still big brother, and Vandy, despite a solid season, has a long way to go before they are on par with the Orange and White.
Vandy’s playoff hopes vanish in Knoxville, and the Vols win by double digits.
The Pick: Tennessee -3
Alabama (-6) @ Auburn
Here is another game that opened at 5.5 and I was all over it. It is now up to 6 and we are still taking it. Not only are we on it, we love this pick so much that we are making it our Lock of the Year.
If you have watched our podcast, you know I pick one game every season to go out on a limb, and if I lose it, I have to wear Scarlet and Gray on the show the following week. No Michigan fan ever wants to do that. We won our Lock of the Year last season, and we feel confident in this one too.
Auburn is 5-6 and does not have a single FBS win over a team with a winning record this season. They recently fired their coach, and their offense has been downright awful.
Alabama certainly has its flaws, most notably a struggling rushing attack. That is not ideal going into Jordan–Hare since Auburn has a top five run defense. However, despite how strong Auburn has been against the run, they rank 91st nationally against the pass and can absolutely be exploited. That is a major problem for the Tigers because the Crimson Tide, led by Heisman hopeful QB Ty Simpson, have the fifth best passing offense in the nation. Alabama will sling it all over the field.
When Auburn has the ball, they will have a hard time coming back from any deficit. They rank in the bottom thirty nationally in passing, while Alabama boasts a top five pass defense.
The Iron Bowl can always be tricky, especially for the road team, but Auburn has also had penalty issues and lacks discipline. I expect this game to be close in the first half, but with a couple key turnovers and simply better talent on both sides, Alabama, fighting for their CFP lives, will pull away and cover.
The Pick: Alabama -6
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