Last week, I shared our picks for the first seven bowl games. Today, we turn our attention to the first four CFP matchups. While not all of these games project to be tight, the good news is that they are far easier to evaluate than most bowl games. We have a much clearer picture of who will be on the field, and with a national championship still in play, motivation and effort will not be concerns.
One quick note before we dive in. Since I’m picking every bowl game this postseason, each selection will include a confidence rating. I’ll use football icons to show how strong I feel about each pick, with one football indicating lower confidence and five footballs representing my strongest plays. Let’s get to it.
Alabama (+1.5) @ Oklahoma
Friday, December 19th at 8:00 PM
This is by far the most difficult first round game to predict in my opinion. Both teams have elite defenses and fairly pedestrian offenses. Neither runs the ball well, but Alabama does have an edge in the passing game, ranking inside the top ten nationally. Oklahoma’s defense is also more vulnerable against the pass than it is against the run, which matters here.
That said, I still have real questions about Alabama. They limp into this game after getting blown out by Georgia in the SEC Championship, and many questioned whether they even deserved a CFP spot. The Tide have lost two of their last four games, including a loss to this same Oklahoma team in Tuscaloosa just a month ago.
Oklahoma is far from flawless, but the Sooners do enter on a four game winning streak and with a little extra rest after not playing in a conference championship game. Quarterback John Mateer will need to move the chains with both his arm and his legs, and if he can replicate that form from earlier in the season, Oklahoma will have a chance. It is also worth noting that the Sooners managed to beat Alabama earlier this year despite totaling just 217 yards of offense, so they clearly found a way.
Still, I am not convinced they can pull it off a second time. While the game being in Norman at night helps, Alabama has shown a knack for forcing turnovers throughout the season and has been very disciplined, committing less than 5 penalties per game. This may end up being my least confident bowl pick of the postseason, but I will lean Alabama grabbing the points.
The Pick: Alabama +1.5
Miami (FL) @ Texas A&M (-3.5)
Saturday, December 20th at 12:00 PM
This is the first round matchup I am looking forward to the most. Miami feels like the Rodney Dangerfield of college football right now, getting virtually no respect. The Hurricanes are 10-2 with wins over four bowl teams, including a victory against 10-2 Notre Dame, a team many people are still upset was left out of the field. Their two losses came against bowl teams as well, SMU and Louisville, and while neither was a top ten opponent, both were respectable results.
Miami has been inconsistent offensively at times, but they still have Carson Beck at quarterback, and I trust his veteran presence and overall moxie. The offense has also looked much more settled since the loss to SMU six weeks ago, averaging 38 points per game over that stretch. Add in a top ten defense, and this is not a team to take lightly.
Waiting for them in College Station, though, is a very tough Texas A&M team. The Aggies are stronger offensively than defensively, but both units rank inside the top thirty and will create real problems for Miami. A&M would have been a top four seed with a bye if not for a Thanksgiving weekend loss to in-state rival Texas, which remains their only loss of the season.
Quarterback Marcel Reed is one of the most dynamic signal callers in the country and can hurt defenses with both his arm and his legs. I like the Aggies passing game, I think they come in with a chip on their shoulder, and I trust their coaching staff more in a game like this. That is before factoring in a home game at Kyle Field, where they are undefeated this season, in one of the loudest environments in the sport.
I expect a tight game early, but I like A&M to pull away and win this one by a touchdown or more.
The Pick: Texas A&M -3.5
Tulane (+17.5) @ Ole Miss
Saturday, December 20th at 3:30 PM
This is an interesting matchup to try to predict, especially since, like Alabama and Oklahoma, these two teams already met earlier this season. And I hate to remind Green Wave fans, but that first meeting was not competitive, with Ole Miss winning 45-10.
Since then, Tulane has been a much different team, winning eight of its last nine games with several quality victories along the way, including wins over bowl teams East Carolina, Army, Memphis, and North Texas. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff struggled badly in the earlier matchup, but he has played much better since. He is a true dual threat and a veteran leader, and if he can shake off the September disaster on this same field, Tulane can at least stay within striking distance.
That will not be easy against one of the better offenses in the country. Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss has been outstanding since taking over for Austin Simmons earlier in the season. Ole Miss ranks third nationally in total offense and can move the ball efficiently through both the air and on the ground. Their only loss came by eight points at Georgia, but they also do not have many truly impressive wins. In fact, their only victories over teams with winning records came against Tulane and Oklahoma.
It is also worth noting that since the win over Tulane, Ole Miss has beaten only one team by more than this 17.5 point spread. Add in the uncertainty surrounding how the Rebels respond without Lane Kiffin on the sideline, and I think Tulane can surprise. This Green Wave team is confident and far better than it was in September. And interestingly, unlike Ole Miss, Tulane will have its head coach Jon Sumrall on the sidelines despite his move to Florida, and this team should be playing hard for him.
I am confident Ole Miss wins the game, but this is a lot of points. I expect Tulane to hang around long enough to make things uncomfortable.
The Pick: Tulane (+17.5)
James Madison @ Oregon (-21.5)
Saturday, December 20th at 7:30 PM
will start by saying this plainly. I have very little respect for James Madison as a CFP participant and do not believe they belong in this field. Duke finished with five losses, but they won the ACC, and if they played in the Sun Belt, they likely would have gone 11-1 themselves. Add in the fact that James Madison has only two wins all season against teams with winning records and that their lone loss came against an average Louisville team that finished seventh in the ACC, and it is hard not to question how the Dukes ended up here.
From a betting perspective, though, this is great. While they do have a dangerous offense and the third ranked defense in the country, they have not seen anything close to what Oregon presents.
Oregon, led by quarterback Dante Moore, has an explosive offense averaging 36 points per game. Defensively, the Ducks rank second nationally in yards allowed, and that unit is going to confuse and pressure JMU quarterback Alonza Barrett into mistakes, likely including multiple turnovers.
The only concern here is the narrative that Oregon essentially gets a bye. If they come out flat, the first half could be a little uncomfortable. But Dan Lanning is too good of a coach for that. He knows this team has a legitimate shot at a national title, and that journey starts by taking care of business.
At Autzen Stadium, on a Saturday night, for a playoff game, this feels like a nightmare scenario for James Madison. The Ducks roll, and it should not be close.
The Pick: Oregon -21.5
