Bowl Season has arrived, and it is time for the best part of college football. During the regular season I pick a handful of games each week that I feel strongly about and share them here as my “Best Bets.” For Bowl Season I am taking it up a notch. I will provide thoughts, commentary, and a pick for every single bowl game.
I will not have the same level of confidence in every pick, so to help you gauge that I am using a football rating system. More footballs mean more confidence.
Please note, this first wave of picks is being published early (on December 12), so keep in mind that news like transfer portal moves, injuries, and coaching changes could still affect some games. Be sure to stay updated as things develop. I will release a new wave of picks every few days until all the games are previewed and selected. I will also break down the CFP games separately.
We finished the regular season right at .500, but last season we performed exceptionally well with our bowl picks, hitting 58% and going 27-19. Let’s see if we can beat that mark this season.
*Note: One football indicates the lowest confidence and five footballs indicates the highest.
LA Bowl (Inglewood, CA)
Saturday, December 13th at 8:00 PM
Boise State (+9.5) vs Washington
Boise State is playing in a bowl game for the 24th time since 1999, and this will be their second appearance in the LA Bowl in the past three seasons. They will also be facing Washington for the seventh time in program history and the third time in a bowl matchup. By most accounts, Boise State has had a disappointing year at 9-4, but their four losses came against teams that are all bowling and finished with a combined record of 36-12. They also won the Mountain West and enter this one riding a three game winning streak.
Washington has put together a solid season, although not an especially spectacular one. Their only FBS win over a team with a winning record came at home against Illinois in October. QB Demond Williams is dangerous with both his legs and his arm, and the Huskies have a top 20 defense. Boise State, however, just got star QB Maddux Madsen back last week after he missed three games, RB Dylan Riley has been excellent as a replacement for all-world RB Ashton Jeanty, and the Broncos are one of the most balanced teams in the country with both a top 30 ranked offense and defense.
Boise State has two starters (OT and Safety) opting out and they are a little banged up after last week’s Mountain West championship game, but this program always plays with a chip on its shoulder, especially when it gets a shot at big boy neighbors like Washington. They will enter this game highly motivated and with this many points on the board, we love the Broncos.
The Pick: Boise State +9.5
Salute to Veterans Bowl (Montgomery, AL)
Tuesday, December 16th at 9:00 PM
Troy vs Jacksonville State (+2.5)
I picked both of these teams to cover last week during their conference championship games. Troy came through for us by hanging tough with James Madison and covering the giant spread. Jacksonville State disappointed us, however, losing at home to Kennesaw State.
Despite that loss, Jacksonville State has had a nice season with several solid wins and very few bad performances. Troy also had a strong year, but the biggest concern for the Trojans is the injury to starting QB Goose Crowder, who left late in the James Madison game with an ankle issue. It appears he will play, but this offense is ranked 125th nationally even with him healthy, so I do not expect them to light up the scoreboard.
Jacksonville State, on the other hand, has an explosive offense, especially on the ground where they rank 5th in the nation behind standout RB Cam Cook. Troy’s bottom 20 rush defense will have a hard time slowing them down.
Jacksonville State is the better team, they have no opt outs or significant injuries, and they are frustrated after letting a winnable game slip away last week, so motivation will not be an issue. Getting points in this spot feels like great value, so we will take the Gamecocks.
The Pick: Jacksonville State +2.5
Cure Bowl (Orlando, FL)
Wednesday, December 17th at 5:00 PM
Old Dominion vs South Florida (-3.5)
South Florida has had one of the better seasons in school history, picking up wins over SEC Florida and two bowl-bound teams in Boise State and North Texas. Their three losses came against opponents with a combined 27-8 record, all of them bowl teams, which shows they have been tested against strong competition.
Old Dominion is a formidable opponent at 9-3, and outside of a strange loss to Marshall, their setbacks came against CFP teams James Madison and Indiana (where they only lost by 13). South Florida owns the number two offense in the nation in total yards, with Old Dominion close behind as a top twenty offense. Defensively, ODU holds the edge, although they are far more vulnerable against the run, which happens to be South Florida’s greatest strength.
Unfortunately, this bowl will be missing its two biggest stars. Old Dominion will be without Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Year Colton Joseph, who entered the transfer portal. South Florida will be without all-everything quarterback Byrum Brown, who accounted for 42 touchdowns, and they also lose head coach Alex Golesh to Auburn. Sixth-year quarterback Gaston Moore steps in for Brown, and while he is not the same playmaker, he has experience at UCF and Tennessee and should keep the offense functional.
With both teams shorthanded, this becomes harder to project. But South Florida’s remaining roster is slightly stronger, and I still have faith in their run game even without the dangerous legs of Brown. ODU will hang around, but we will lean toward the Bulls.
The Pick: South Florida (-3.5)
68 Ventures Bowl (Mobile, AL)
Wednesday, December 17th at 8:30 PM
Louisiana vs Delaware (+3.5)
This has to be near the top of the “most meh” bowl matchups of the season, with two 6-6 teams that have been, at best, inconsistent. Delaware picked up a couple of decent wins early, including one over a solid 9-3 UConn team, but also somehow lost to 2-10 Sam Houston State. Louisiana has not been much better. The Ragin’ Cajuns enter with zero wins over teams with a winning record, although they have won four straight, so momentum might be on their side.
There is not much to report on in terms of opt-outs or injuries. The lone notable absence is Louisiana offensive tackle Bryant Williams, an 11-game starter who entered the transfer portal.
Both defenses are poor, so this one could get messy, but the biggest edge comes from Delaware’s passing game. Believe it or not, the Blue Hens own the fourth-ranked passing offense in the country behind the arm of QB Nick Minicucci, and they now face a Louisiana secondary that has struggled all season. Delaware should be able to move the ball and score with relative ease.
In a matchup of two flawed teams, the outcome could swing either way. But Delaware has the more explosive offense, and Louisiana has shown very little ability to slow down quality passing attacks. The fact that the Blue Hens are getting more than a field goal is enough for us to take them, although our confidence level sits right in the middle.
The Pick: Delaware +3.5
XBox Bowl (Frisco, TX)
Thursday, December 18th at 9:00 PM
Missouri State vs Arkansas State (-1.5)
In another matchup between two unimpressive teams, Missouri State enters with the better record at 7-5. They have no wins against teams with a winning record, but all five of their losses came against bowl teams. They also lose HC Ryan Beard to Coastal Carolina and two marginal starters are already in the transfer portal.
Arkansas State’s resume is not much better, although they do have a solid road win over 8-5 Troy. Both defenses are below average and neither team runs the ball well. Both teams boast top forty passing offenses, but there is no meaningful advantage because their passing defenses grade out similarly.
While I do not have a ton of confidence in this one, I lean toward Arkansas State because of the coaching continuity and because I trust QB Jalen Raynor a little more. In a game with a very small line, we will take the Red Wolves and lay the points.
The Pick: Arkansas State -1.5
Myrtle Beach Bowl (Conway, SC)
Friday, December 19th at 11:00 AM
Kennesaw State (+4.5) vs Western Michigan
Let’s start with the news that there are no significant injuries or opt outs on either side, which means we are likely getting both teams at full strength in an interesting matchup. Kennesaw State enters at 10-3 and just won the Sun Belt Championship. They have won nine of their last ten and all three losses came against bowl teams.
Western Michigan also comes in hot, winning nine of its last ten and capturing the MAC Championship. This game is a clear clash of styles. Kennesaw State’s strength is offense, where they rank in the top 40 nationally and are led by ultra talented dual threat QB Amari Odom. Western Michigan is 13th in the nation in total defense and will make it difficult for the Owls to consistently move the ball.
Kennesaw State has only been in the FBS for a few years and went from 2-10 in 2024 to 10-3 and Sun Belt champions. They have confidence and momentum on their side. Western Michigan is an equally strong team and absolutely could win this game, but I like the Owls offense enough to keep it close. Getting 4.5 points is the difference for me, so that is our lean.
The Pick: Kennesaw State +4.5
Gasparilla Bowl (Tampa, FL)
Friday, December 19th at 2:30 PM
Memphis (+5.5) vs North Carolina State
Memphis has had a decent season and comes into this bowl at 8-4, but only two of those wins came against teams with winning records. The bigger concern is the three game losing streak they carry into this matchup. They are also without HC Ryan Silverfield, who took the same post at Arkansas. The Tigers still have talented QB Brendon Lewis under center and he can make a real impact. Their passing attack is slightly above average, but Lewis gets to face the single worst rated pass defense in the entire FBS, so Memphis should be able to move the ball through the air with ease.
On the other side, NC State has two legitimate playmakers in QB CJ Bailey and RB Hollywood Smothers, but they are both maddeningly inconsistent. This is the same team that got blown out by Pittsburgh, then beat Georgia Tech the next week, then was blown out by Miami two weeks later. They enter this game on a two game winning streak, and I do not like the Memphis slide, but this still feels like too many points.
Memphis is a good team, and even though they are led by an interim coach, most of their roster is intact. It has been a disappointing finish to the regular season, but they can end on a high note with a win against a power four opponent. Getting 5.5 points is a lot here, so we will take Memphis.
The Pick: Memphis +5.5