The early stretch of bowl season rolls on, and we are back to break down and predict another eight games. We went 3-4 in Wave 1, but I like to think these matchups tend to get a little easier to read as bowl season moves along and the games feature more established programs.
That said, this Wave 2 slate has a few true snoozers, and we only have two picks that hit above the three-football confidence mark. Still, it is bowl season with games on tv virtually every day, we can bet on it, and certainly no complaints from me.
We will be back in a few days with Wave 3, plus a separate breakdown of the CFP semifinals, so be sure to check those out as well.
*Note: One football indicates the lowest confidence and five footballs indicates the highest.
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl (Boise, ID)
Monday, December 22nd at 2:00 PM
Washington State (+1.5) vs Utah State
This is a classic bowl season yawner, featuring two 6-6 teams that have been inconsistent at best. Washington State comes into this game without head coach Jimmy Rogers, who left for Iowa State, and they are dealing with a few injuries and minor transfer portal losses. Nothing there is overly concerning on its own. What does concern me is the week to week inconsistency.
The Cougars have shown they can compete. They picked up wins over bowl teams like San Diego State, Toledo, and Louisiana Tech, and they played CFP participants James Madison and Ole Miss to one score in both games. At the same time, they were blown out by 49 points against North Texas and by 35 against rival Washington. The biggest red flag is their road performance. Washington State has just one road win all season, and it came against 2–10 Colorado State. While this game is at a neutral site and relatively close to Pullman, that trend is still worth noting.
Utah State’s résumé is not much stronger. The Aggies played Boise State and UNLV close, but lost both games. Their lone win against a team with a winning record came a month ago against Fresno State.
This matchup is a contrast in strengths. Utah State is the more capable offense and can move the ball, even if they are far from explosive. Washington State, on the other hand, sits near the bottom of the FBS offensively. Defensively, the edge flips entirely. The Cougars boast a top 15 defense, while Utah State ranks near the bottom of the country.
I do not love either side, but Washington State makes more sense. They are playing relatively close to home, have the slightly stronger résumé, and own a significant defensive advantage. Even without their head coach, getting the points with the Cougars is the side I prefer.
The Pick: Washington State +1.5
Boca Raton Bowl (Boca Raton, FL)
Tuesday, December 23rd at 2:00 pm
Toledo (+6.5) vs. Louisville
Motivation is always a concern when a Power Five team faces a Group of Five opponent in a lower tier bowl, and that could matter here. That said, there are some legitimate concerns with Toledo, starting with the coaching turnover. The Rockets lost head coach Jason Candle to UConn and defensive coordinator Vince Kehres to Syracuse, and they are also dealing with a few injuries.
Even with that, this is still a very good Toledo team. They have won four straight games and closed the season on a strong note. While they opened the year with four consecutive road losses, they have since won their last two road games, both against bowl bound teams. The biggest strength is the defense. Toledo ranks fifth nationally in yards allowed at under 270 per game and fourth in points allowed. They are no slouch offensively either, finishing 33rd in the country.
The caveat is that much of that production came against MAC and Group of Five competition. Louisville, despite an uneven season and losing three of its last four games, remains dangerous. The Cardinals picked up wins over CFP participants James Madison and Miami earlier in the year. Quarterback Miller Moss is back from the injury that sidelined him during the blowout loss to SMU, and he led Louisville to a dominant 41-0 win over in-state rival Kentucky in the finale, throwing three touchdowns. He also has one of the top receivers in the country in Chris Bell.
The line has come down from the opener and now sits under a touchdown. Even so, I still lean Toledo. I do not love backing a team without its head coach or defensive coordinator, but the Rockets are well balanced, highly motivated, and more consistent. I am not convinced we know which Louisville team will show up. This is a lower confidence play, but I will take Toledo to cover and grab the points.
The Pick: Toledo +6.5
New Orleans Bowl (New Orleans, LA)
Tuesday, December 23rd at 5:30 pm
Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss (+2.5)
Western Kentucky’s résumé looks better on paper than it does in practice. In their three wins against teams with winning records, those victories came by a combined nine points, so even when they beat good teams, the margin was razor thin. The Hilltoppers do enter this game at full strength, with no notable injury or transfer portal concerns, which is a positive.
The strength for both teams is clearly the passing game. Western Kentucky is led by quarterback Maverick McIvor and has no problem throwing the ball around. Southern Miss can match that production with Braylon Braxton at the controls, as the Golden Eagles rank inside the top 30 nationally in passing yards. Defensively, neither side is particularly strong, which points toward a high scoring affair. The total reflects that, sitting at 57.5.
Southern Miss does come in on a three game losing streak and will be without head coach Charles Huff, who departed for Memphis. That said, interim head coach Blake Anderson is the offensive coordinator and has prior head coaching experience, so leadership on the sideline should not be an issue.
This is another tight game to call between two evenly matched teams. I lean slightly toward Southern Miss because they rank top 10 nationally in takeaway margin, which could be the difference in a shootout. With the Golden Eagles getting points, that is the side I prefer, though confidence is modest.
The Pick: Southern Miss +2.5
Frisco Bowl (Frisco, TX)
Tuesday, December 23rd at 9:00 pm
UNLV (-6.5) vs. Ohio
I realize many Group of Five conferences could fall into this category, but I have always found the MAC to be one of the toughest leagues to handicap during bowl season. I have written before about how the MAC has historically been one of the weakest FBS conferences from top to bottom over the past two decades. That makes it difficult to truly evaluate teams when they spend most of the season playing similarly mediocre competition. Even in non-conference play, MAC teams often get blown out by good Power Five opponents or lose games against bad teams, like Ohio’s early season loss at Rutgers.
Ohio’s 8-4 record looks solid at first glance, and they did finish tied for first in the MAC, losing a tiebreaker that kept them out of the conference title game. Dig a little deeper, though, and the résumé is underwhelming. The Bobcats have just one FBS win all season against a team with a winning record, a four point home victory over Miami (OH) six weeks ago. They are essentially average on both sides of the ball, and preseason buzz around quarterback Parker Navarro never really materialized. Adding to the concern, Ohio will be without head coach Brian Smith, who is on an indefinite leave of absence.
Now they face another Group of Five opponent, but one of the stronger ones in the country in my opinion. UNLV is led by quarterback Anthony Colandrea, who ranks 15th nationally in passing yards at over 250 per game. This is an offense that can score and ranks near the top of the FBS in most passing categories. Ohio does have a respectable defense, particularly against the pass, which should help keep things competitive early.
Colandrea’s mobility could be the difference. He showed that side of his game by rushing for nearly 100 yards in UNLV’s MWC championship game loss to Boise State, and I expect him to use his legs again to open up the passing attack. UNLV has an impressive résumé, with losses only to Boise State and New Mexico, both bowl teams. I am not in love with their defense though, and I do think Ohio can hang around before UNLV’s explosiveness takes over. Ultimately, I like UNLV to make enough big plays to pull away and cover the number.
The Pick: UNLV -6.5
Hawai’i Bowl (Honolulu, HI)
Wednesday, December 24th at 8:00 pm
California vs. Hawai’i (-1.5)
Hawai‘i has been tough to beat at home all season, losing just once on the islands, a two point defeat to bowl bound Fresno State back in September. This team looks very different when playing in Hawai‘i compared to when they travel to the mainland, and that home field edge matters here. On the other side, California’s only truly impressive road win all season came at Louisville, a narrow three point victory last month.
Hawai‘i enters this game largely at full strength, while California is dealing with injuries and will be without longtime head coach Justin Wilcox following his recent dismissal. The Rainbow Warriors hold the edge on both sides of the ball and feature the seventh ranked passing offense in the nation by yards.
I am not going to overthink this one. Hawai‘i at home is a real advantage, and while the talent gap is not massive, the combination of health, stability, and offensive firepower points clearly in one direction. I like the Rainbow Warriors to cover the small number at home.
The Pick: Hawai’i -1.5
GameAbove Sports Bowl (Detroit, MI)
Friday, December 26th at 1:00 pm
Central Michigan (+10.5) vs. Northwestern
Central Michigan may be the weakest bowl team to come out of the MAC this season. They have zero wins against teams with winning records and have consistently struggled away from home. Offensively, they rank 111th nationally and are average at best on the defensive side of the ball.
Northwestern’s 6-6 record is difficult to evaluate. All six losses came against bowl teams, including two CFP participants, but their résumé is thin. Their only win against a team with a winning record was a three point home victory over 7-5 Minnesota, and they have dropped four of their last five games. Central Michigan enters this matchup healthier and does a good job forcing turnovers, which could give them a chance to hang around.
Neither offense inspires much confidence. Northwestern has the defensive edge and is battle tested from Big Ten play, but this is easily one of the toughest games on the slate to predict. Confidence is low here, just one football, but I will lean toward Central Michigan to keep it close. Getting double digit points in their home state against an average Northwestern team is enough to take a shot with the Chippewas.
The Pick: Central Michigan +10.5
Rate Bowl (Phoenix, AZ)
Friday, December 26th at 4:30 pm
New Mexico (+2.5) vs. Minnesota
New Mexico enters this bowl game riding a six game winning streak, and head coach Jason Eck has quickly become one of the hotter names in the coaching world. Taking over for Bronco Mendenhall in the offseason, Eck guided the Lobos to a 9–3 record despite a fairly challenging schedule. They did suffer one head scratching loss at 3–9 San Jose State, but their other two defeats came at Michigan and Boise State. On the positive side, New Mexico picked up impressive wins over bowl teams like UNLV and San Diego State.
The Lobos do not jump off the page statistically on either side of the ball, but they are also not riddled with weaknesses. They play tough, physical football, stay competitive, and rarely beat themselves.
Minnesota, meanwhile, has been one of the stranger teams to evaluate this season. The Golden Gophers managed just one win against a bowl team and have been downright terrible offensively, ranking in the bottom five nationally. Only Wisconsin has been worse among Power Five programs.
I love what Eck has built here. Whether he stays or not, this is a team that believes in what it is doing and will be highly motivated for this matchup. They will relish the chance to knock off a Big Ten opponent, and it does not hurt that Eck is a Wisconsin alum, which adds a little extra edge against Minnesota. Getting points in the desert, I will gladly take red-hot New Mexico to show up, play hard, and walk away with a win.
The Pick: New Mexico +2.5
First Responder Bowl (Dallas, TX)
Friday, December 26th at 8:00 pm
Florida International vs. UTSA (-5.5)
This one is a tough watch on paper, and I am not thrilled about spending much time on it. That said, ugly games can still be profitable, and I actually feel pretty strong about one side here, so let’s break it down.
Florida International comes into this game on a four game winning streak, with solid wins over bowl teams Jacksonville State and Western Kentucky. However, the biggest concern is at quarterback. Joe Pesansky, their primary starter for most of the season, missed the regular season finale against Sam Houston State and is listed as questionable. Even if he is active, I would be surprised if he is close to full strength, and if he does not play, FIU could have a hard time moving the ball consistently.
They now face a Roadrunners team playing in Dallas that beat CFP participant Tulane and typically takes care of business against teams they should beat. UTSA ranks inside the top 30 offensively and should move the ball without much resistance against a shaky FIU defense. While the Roadrunners are not elite defensively, they are more than capable of keeping FIU in check, especially if the Golden Panthers are forced to rely on a backup quarterback.
UTSA is simply the better team. With quarterback Owen McCown and running back Robert Henry leading the way, I expect the Roadrunners to control this game and win comfortably. We will lay the points here and put four footballs of confidence behind it.
The Pick: UTSA -5.5
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