With the Week 12 CFP rankings released Tuesday night, we finally have a fresh look at how the committee sees the 2025 playoff landscape. Here is a breakdown of where things stand by conference.
ACC
The ACC still looks like a one bid league. Georgia Tech might sneak into the field if they beat Georgia, then lose a tight ACC title game, but that feels like a long shot. The interesting wild card is Miami, currently ranked #13. At 4-2 in the conference, their odds of reaching Charlotte are slim, but could their ranking, and resume, keep them in the at-large conversation?
Big 12
I do not quite understand the committee’s love for Utah. BYU being in the top twenty makes sense, but Utah sitting above two-loss Miami, Vanderbilt, USC, and one loss Georgia Tech is puzzling. Either way, the committee clearly likes the Big 12 this year, with five ranked teams. Texas Tech remains the favorite to win the league, but BYU and Utah are both close enough to stay relevant down the stretch.
SEC
Alabama’s loss drops them to #10, which is currently the last playoff position, and that feels fair given their resume. The top of the league is an absolute logjam. Texas A&M, Georgia, Ole Miss, and Alabama are all 6-1 or better in conference play. A&M and Alabama control their own destinies heading into Week 13, but the bigger story is volume. There is a very real chance the SEC sends those four teams, plus Oklahoma, into the CFP field.
Big Ten
Ohio State and Indiana feel locked in at this point. Oregon controls its own destiny, but must beat USC and Washington to stay in the top twelve. A loss to either likely eliminates them. Alabama fell six spots for a loss to Oklahoma, so Oregon would likely drop at least four with a defeat. Both USC at #15 and Michigan at #18 still have a path, but they both need to win out (USC travels to Oregon this weekend and Michigan hosts Ohio State next weekend)
Group of Five
The only ranked Group of Five team is 8-2 Tulane, and even they are not guaranteed a spot. James Madison, now 9-1 and ranked #21 in the AP Poll, remains firmly in the mix. Tulane still has not clinched a spot in the AAC Championship, so the door is open for chaos.
Notre Dame
Notre Dame is easy to overlook when thinking by conference, but impossible to ignore in the playoff race. After dismantling #22 Pitt, they finish with Stanford and Syracuse. Their ticket to the postseason is essentially punched. Pop the champagne.
My Bracket Prediction
Byes:
#1 Ohio State
#2 Texas A&M
#3 Georgia
#4 Indiana
First Round Matchups:
#12 JMU at #5 Texas Tech
#9 Notre Dame at #8 Oklahoma
#11 Georgia Tech at #6 Ole Miss
#10 Alabama at #7 Oregon
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