It is still early in the college basketball season, and there is a long way to go before conference play really settles in. That actually makes this the perfect time to lock in futures bets. Nobody has played a league game yet, so the odds are still soft, and schedules become one of the biggest edges you can exploit.
These futures are regular season titles only, not conference tournaments. In the era of mega-conferences, who you play and where you play them matters more than ever. The Big East still runs a double round robin, but in the ACC, Big Ten, SEC, and Big 12, schedules can make or break your ticket.
Here is a conference-by-conference look at the best value plays on the board.
ACC: Duke +120 (FanDuel)
These are the shortest odds on the list, but Duke has earned that respect. The Blue Devils have rolled nearly everyone on their schedule, with only Arkansas and Florida keeping things within ten points. More importantly, the ACC is down again, and Duke’s schedule borders on a gift.
Duke draws both Virginia and Clemson at home, and its only other Top 50 road game is at North Carolina. That means only two ACC road games out of eighteen come against Top 50 opponents. You will not find a more favorable setup anywhere in the major conferences.
The price is not great, but it is still plus money on the best team with the cleanest path. Sometimes the chalk is worth it. This feels like one of those times.
Big Ten: Purdue, +200 (BetMGM)
Michigan looks like a national title contender, but the Wolverines drew the short end of the scheduling stick. They travel to Mackey Arena and do not get a return game in Ann Arbor.
That is a major advantage for Purdue. The Boilermakers are experienced, deep, and built around veterans Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer, who know this league inside and out. They have the roster and the mentality to grind out a regular season title.
Michigan is +125, which is not enough value to justify taking the road disadvantage. Purdue offers the stronger price and the better path.
Big East: Connecticut, -150 (DraftKings)
The odds are short, but the Huskies are clearly the class of the Big East. Nobody else in the league is playing close to a championship level right now. St. John’s and Butler look good, but not good enough to outlast UConn over twenty games.
The only drawback is tying up money for four months at a modest return. But unless Connecticut suffers injuries or a major collapse, this is the safest futures ticket in any power conference. If your bankroll allows it, this is a strong play.
Big 12: Iowa State, +350 (FanDuel)
Arizona might be the best team in the league, but Iowa State offers the best value on the board because of its schedule.
The Cyclones have an incredibly back-loaded Big 12 slate. They do not see Houston, BYU, or Arizona until the final three weeks of the season. If they can steal a win at Kansas early, they could reasonably enter the home stretch at 11-1 or even 12-0 in conference play.
If that happens, bettors suddenly have real flexibility. You can hold the ticket, cash out early, or hedge with another contender. That is exactly the type of futures position you want.
SEC: Arkansas, +1500 (FanDuel)
This is what a true longshot should look like: a good team with a real path that oddsmakers have not fully priced in.
John Calipari has Arkansas playing tough, and the Razorbacks have no bad losses. A three point defeat at Michigan State and a nine point loss to Duke in Chicago are nothing to worry about.
The schedule sets up nicely too. Arkansas gets Kentucky, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt at home. The road trips to Alabama and Florida do not come until after Valentine’s Day, when the odds will almost certainly be shorter.
At +1500, this is an appealing lottery ticket with a realistic shot to rise as the season goes on.
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