The College Football Playoff expanded to 12 teams in 2024, and many experts predicted two things would happen. First, that the selection process would create even more drama. Second, that bowl games would start to lose meaning. With this year’s playoff field officially revealed, both concerns look more valid than ever.
The bracket itself includes most of the teams we expected, but the seeding brought a few surprises, and we had a couple of massive shockers that no one would have predicted two weeks ago. Let’s break down what happened, what it means, and what it signals for the future of the format.
Indiana Hoosiers #1
It’s almost overshadowed by the chaos elsewhere, but it is flat-out incredible to see Indiana sitting atop the CFP standings, undefeated and positioned for an unprecedented title run.
The Hoosiers entered the season ranked #20 nationally and sixth in the Big Ten. Not only were they not seen as a potential top team, they weren’t viewed as a playoff threat at all. Curt Cignetti has delivered a masterclass, guiding Indiana to an undefeated regular season capped by a grind-it-out, low-scoring win over Ohio State.
The fan base is ecstatic, the college football world is stunned, and the idea of the Indiana Hoosiers winning a national title is suddenly very real.
Notre Dame Gets Petty
I started with Indiana to keep things positive, because this is the real headline from Selection Sunday, and the ripple effects will be felt for years.
Notre Dame, widely expected to make the playoff, was bumped in favor of Miami. Both teams finished 10-2. Both had strong closing stretches. But most projections had the Irish ahead of the Hurricanes, largely due to their 10-game winning streak and overall resume.
Miami’s losses came by a combined nine points, but the opponents were weaker than the teams who beat Notre Dame. Yet the committee pointed to Miami’s head-to-head win in Week 1 as the deciding factor. That was the tiebreaker.
Notre Dame responded… by declining to play in a bowl game. Their announcement made clear they felt misled by the committee, disagreed with the outcome, and would skip bowl season entirely.
Were these the right decisions?
From the committee? No. Notre Dame’s 10-game run included quality wins over MWC champ Boise State and #16 USC. Miami’s only ranked win was that three-point victory over Notre Dame. Using a Week 1 squeaker to overrule the entire season feels flimsy.
From Notre Dame? Also no. This sets a dangerous precedent. They are not the only team to get snubbed, and refusing to play a bowl game in protest opens the door for future teams to do the same. There were better ways to make their point.
A Power 4 Conference Winner Gets Snubbed
One scenario everyone saw coming actually happened: the ACC champion did not make the playoff.
Duke upset Virginia 27–20 in the ACC Championship, eliminating the Cavaliers and creating the exact scenario that allows Tulane and James Madison to enter the field while leaving out a Power 4 champion.
Duke is reportedly frustrated, but they do not have a strong argument. At 8-5, with an uneven season, they do not look like a playoff team. Tulane and JMU were simply better. The ACC can place the blame squarely on Virginia. Had the Cavaliers won, they were in.
Quick Fire: Who Got Lucky and Unlucky?
Unluckiest:
Notre Dame
No explanation needed.
Texas A&M
Just two weeks ago they were a clear top-four seed. Now they are #7. It’s mostly self-inflicted, but finishing 11-1 in the SEC and landing at seven still stings.
Luckiest:
Alabama
Landing at #9 was a gift. The ripple effects from the Notre Dame decision almost certainly boosted the Tide.
James Madison
Duke’s upset of Virginia opened the door. JMU should send the Blue Devils a thank-you card.
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