The regular season is officially over and every team has now completed all 12 games. With conference championship weekend on deck, the College Football Playoff picture is crowded, complicated, and far from settled. Here is where things stand heading into Saturday.
How the Spots Work
You know the format by now. The top five ranked conference champions, plus seven at large teams, earn bids. Even in year two of the 12 team playoff, things are still wide open going into championship weekend.
The SEC: Five Teams In, with Two Complications
Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Alabama are all currently inside the field. They all should make it. The only real questions center on Alabama and Ole Miss.
The committee has already said that it will not punish teams for playing in conference championship games. That matters for Alabama. If the Tide lose to Georgia, they would fall to three losses, but the committee has hinted they will not automatically drop them behind higher finishing SEC teams like Oklahoma, Ole Miss, or Texas A&M simply because they lost this week.
Ole Miss is 11-1 and positioned well, but Lane Kiffin’s departure adds a wrinkle. The committee famously dropped Florida State in 2023 after it lost Jordan Travis. Could Ole Miss face the same fate without its head coach? It is not likely, but it is something to monitor.
The ACC: Is a Shutout Possible?
In reality, the four power league champions are supposed to get bids, but the actual rule is simple. The top five ranked conference champions qualify.
This means the ACC could miss the playoff entirely.
If Duke wins the league and remains ranked behind both the projected Sun Belt champion and American champion, then the ACC would not receive an automatic spot. The committee ranked Tulane, JMU, and North Texas. It did not rank five-loss Duke. The path to an ACC shutout is more realistic than fans want to admit.
The Big 12: A Two Team Scenario
BYU sits at #11 and is the first team out. If the Cougars beat Texas Tech in Lubbock, the league could send both teams. It is very unlikely that the committee would drop an 11-2 Texas Tech seven spots for losing to a top 12 opponent.
The Two Loss Wild Card Teams
Notre Dame currently holds the final at-large spot. BYU, Miami, and Texas are right behind them. The committee will have to decide whether Notre Dame deserves to stay ahead of the loser of the Big 12 title game.
If Alabama loses to Georgia, the Tide enter that conversation too. We could end up with a crowded fight between three loss Alabama, two loss Notre Dame, two loss Miami, and two loss Texas for two at large positions.
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