College football’s Conference Championship week is here, and this year brings several unexpected matchups, both compared to preseason expectations and compared to what many thought even a week ago.
While not every game carries massive stakes beyond the trophy, a handful come with serious playoff implications, and tensions will be high across the country. Here is a full breakdown of each conference championship, the key players, the important stats, and what each result could mean for the playoff field.
Conference USA: Kennesaw State (-140) at Jacksonville State
Kennesaw State has made a huge leap in its second season at the FBS level, jumping from a 2-10 debut in 2024 to a 9-3 record this year. Now the Owls enter the championship game against the defending CUSA champions, the Jacksonville State Gamecocks, who once again feature one of the most run heavy offenses in the nation.
The Gamecocks will lean heavily on Cam Cook, the FBS leading rusher, and freshman quarterback Caden Creel, who has nearly as many rushing yards as passing yards. That formula presents a major problem for the Owls, whose rushing defense ranks in the bottom third nationally and allows more than 180 yards per game against FBS opponents. Expect Jacksonville State to attack on the ground from the start.
Kennesaw State is favored, but the pressure falls on quarterback Amari Odom, especially since the Owls have a limited rushing attack of their own. Odom has been steady since stepping into the starting role midseason, but his worst performance of the year came against Jacksonville State. The Owls may be the better team on paper, but this matchup does not favor them.
The Pick: Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Sun Belt: Troy at No. 25 James Madison (-2800)
This is the most lopsided conference championship on the slate, and it would take something unusual for this game to go any direction other than a James Madison win.
JMU started 1-1 but then ripped off ten straight victories to win the East Division, finishing 8-0 in Sun Belt play. Troy had the third best record in the conference but reached the title game by winning the West Division, even though Old Dominion owned a better overall mark.
JMU ranks inside the top ten nationally in both scoring offense and scoring defense against FBS opponents, while Troy is not inside the top fifty in either category. Dual threat quarterback Alonza Barnett III has accounted for 33 total touchdowns and should be able to add to that total here. With an outside chance to earn a playoff spot, JMU should come out motivated to make an emphatic statement.
The Pick: James Madison Dukes
American Athletic: No. 24 North Texas (-140) vs. No. 20 Tulane
This may not be the highest profile matchup of the weekend, but it could quickly turn into one of the most entertaining. It is a battle of greens, Mean Green vs. Green Wave, and a look at whether an elite offense or a balanced roster prevails.
North Texas is the highest scoring offense in the country, averaging 46.4 points per game against FBS competition. Quarterback Drew Mestemaker has had a criminally under-discussed year with 3835 yards, 29 touchdowns, a 70.9 percent completion rate, and only four interceptions. North Texas will go as far as Mestemaker and running back Caleb Hawkins take them.
Tulane counters with balance. Both their offense and defense rank between 40 and 50 nationally in scoring against FBS opponents. The defense has been especially strong lately, allowing only 12.3 points per game over the last three weeks. This shapes up as a competitive game between two fringe ranked teams, but Mestemaker is the best player on the field and the likely difference.
The Pick: North Texas Mean Green
Mountain West: Boise State (-194) vs. UNLV
Boise State and UNLV meet in the Mountain West title game for the third straight year, with the Broncos winning the previous two matchups.
UNLV comes in with one of the highest scoring offenses in the country. Quarterback Anthony Colandrea has totaled 3606 yards this season, and while the Rebels do not have a singular dominant wideout, the threat of running back Jai’Den Thomas combined with Colandrea’s mobility opens the field.
The problem is the Rebels defense, especially against the run. Boise State is a run-first team that leans on Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines to grind down opponents. UNLV is not built to stop a physical rushing attack that controls the clock and keeps their explosive offense on the sideline.
UNLV will always have a chance because of their offense, but Boise State’s run game and physicality should be too much.
The Pick: Boise State Broncos
Big 12: No. 11 BYU vs. No. 4 Texas Tech (-500)
Texas Tech enters championship weekend as the second biggest favorite on the board behind James Madison, and the -500 line may shock some fans who see an 11th ranked BYU team across the field. But even a quick look at the numbers shows why the Red Raiders are so heavily favored.
Texas Tech has the fifth best scoring offense and second best scoring defense against FBS opponents. Only Indiana can also claim top five marks in both categories. Quarterback Behren Morton has been a steady game manager and running back Cameron Dickey brings physicality and consistency.
The real edge, however, is Texas Tech’s front seven. BYU relies primarily on three receivers and a run game centered around LJ Martin and quarterback Bear Bachmeier. Offenses with narrow personnel distributions struggle against heavy, pressure oriented front sevens. Linebackers David Bailey and Romello Height each have double digit sacks, and their pressure has helped produce 14 interceptions. If Texas Tech contains Martin and consistently pressures Bachmeier, the line will make perfect sense.
The Pick: Texas Tech Red Raiders
MAC: Western Michigan (-128) vs. Miami (Ohio)
This is likely the quietest conference championship of the weekend and will mostly draw fans from the two schools involved.
Neither offense is especially dynamic, but Western Michigan quarterback Broc Lowry is the most explosive player on either roster. Lowry leads the Broncos in both passing and rushing and is arguably more dangerous with his legs than his arm.
Western Michigan also has one of the highest rated scoring defenses in the country against FBS opponents, tied for 15th nationally. With the best offensive player and the better defense, the Broncos have the clearer path.
The Pick: Western Michigan Broncos
SEC: No. 3 Georgia (-137) vs. No. 9 Alabama
This is not the SEC Championship matchup most expected a week ago, but Alabama and Georgia can thank Texas A&M’s unfortunate loss to Texas for the final standings. What could have been an unpredictable offense versus defense duel now shapes up as a defensive slugfest.
Both teams have top fifteen defenses and offenses ranked in the low to mid twenties. Points should be at a premium, so the question becomes which unit can manufacture enough scoring.
Georgia appears to have the advantage on the ground. Alabama’s rush defense ranks 40th nationally and may struggle to contain the combination of Nate Frazier and quarterback Gunner Stockton. Stockton is not a pure dual threat, but with 403 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns, he can keep drives alive.
If Alabama wins, it will come through the arm of Ty Simpson, but Georgia’s defense has been too consistent to bet against. Expect a grind of a game with the favorite pulling through.
The Pick: Georgia Bulldogs
ACC: No. 17 Virginia (-172) vs. Duke
The ACC looked like one of the deeper conferences early in the season, but now it may be in danger of missing the playoff entirely depending on how this game unfolds.
Virginia enters knowing that a loss likely eliminates them and potentially knocks the ACC out altogether. Miami currently sits at number twelve in the CFP rankings, but if Duke wins and the committee chooses another non Power Four champion such as James Madison, the Hurricanes could fall to thirteen and leave the ACC without a representative.
Virginia has played a season full of close games, with narrow wins and tough losses to Wake Forest and NC State. Duke features a top twenty offense but a bottom third defense. Both teams avoid turnovers, so the outcome will hinge on which offense heats up at the right moment. Virginia is the more balanced and more complete team.
The Pick: Virginia Cavaliers
Big Ten: No. 1 Ohio State (-196) vs. No. 2 Indiana
It does not get any bigger than this. A #1 vs #2 matchup in a conference championship is as good as it gets, and the entire country will be watching.
Both teams are expected to secure top four seeds and first round byes in the playoff regardless of the outcome, but with undefeated seasons at stake, there are bragging rights, history, and momentum on the line.
Ohio State brings the number one defense in the country but ranks seventeenth in scoring offense. Indiana ranks third nationally in both scoring and scoring defense, giving them a profile of balance most teams envy. The quarterback battle between Julian Sayin and Fernando Mendoza is essentially a draw, but Indiana has more depth in the run game.
Both teams play clean, efficient football with limited turnovers, so the edge likely comes from the more complete offense.
The Pick: Indiana Hoosiers
Want more Sandman? Come connect with us here at sandmansports.com/staging/8269/onestopshop
