Dec. 15 is the unofficial start of trade season in the NBA. It’s the date plenty of players become eligible to be dealt, and it’s the date where a long-rumored Giannis Antetokounmpo trade could become reality.
The two-time MVP is reportedly considering his future. The Milwaukee Bucks haven’t won a playoff series since 2022 and sit 10-15 on the season. Antetokounmpo is expected to miss most, if not all, of December. Additionally, the Bucks have lost their last seven games without Antetokounmpo and have a -10.3 net rating when the Greek Freak isn’t on the court.
Moving on from Damian Lillard and throwing a big-money deal at Myles Turner in the offseason reflected Milwaukee’s desperation to keep Giannis happy. When they started the season 8-5, with Giannis playing arguably the best basketball of his career, it looked to be a gamble that had worked out.
Since then, the Bucks have gone 2-10. Injuries have limited Antetokounmpo’s involvement. His future in Wisconsin is very much up in the air, with contrasting reporting on whether the Bucks will listen to Giannis’ demands on a potential landing spot.
For all the good play of Ryan Rollins, Kevin Porter Jr., and others, these Bucks aren’t going anywhere. The Eastern Conference doesn’t have elite top-end teams, but it is deep with competent to good outfits. Currently 10th in the East, the Bucks are already four games behind ninth in the loss column.
With the amount of time Antetokounmpo is expected to miss, there’s every chance the Bucks aren’t in the play-in when he returns. It would take a superhuman run from the nine-time All-Star to get Milwaukee into the top six.
The Bucks might have wanted Antetokounmpo to follow the Dirk Nowitzki route, and perhaps Giannis really wanted that outcome, but no one can blame him for wanting out with where Milwaukee is trending.
Does Milwaukee Accept the Inevitable?
The question, though, is whether the Bucks grant Giannis his wish if he asks out. It’s rare a team gets a player back on side, and it’s not like Milwaukee’s front office has any flexibility to build a contender around Antetokounmpo.
Sure, they don’t have their picks going forward, but it might be best to accept that as a sunk cost. The Bucks surely won’t want to cause long-term damage to their relationship with the franchise’s greatest ever player.
That means trading Giannis this season if that’s what he wants. The predicament to address, then, is whether the Bucks are willing to restrict the potential return by only trading Antetokounmpo to his preferred team(s).
The New York Knicks have been rumored as a favored landing spot for Giannis. If he demands a trade specifically to the Knicks, the Bucks have very little leverage. New York is also very restricted in the draft picks it can trade after selling the farm for Mikal Bridges.
Does Giannis Call the Shots?
This won’t play out like Anthony Davis’ trade to the Los Angeles Lakers. Davis made it clear there was only one team he wanted to go to and managed to put other front offices off swinging a trade. The New Orleans Pelicans still received a mega haul.
If Giannis plays this like Davis did, whether it’s with the Knicks or another team, Milwaukee risks getting a wince-inducing return. In that scenario, their best chance of recouping significant assets is to reroute any veterans they get from the Knicks for more picks.
The other way this could play out is the Bucks agree to trade Giannis and he A) doesn’t specify a destination or B) the Bucks say they will trade him to a contender, but it will be the highest bidder, regardless of his preference.
Giannis is under contract until the end of next season. He has a player option for 2027-28. A team could go all-in and get two playoff runs with one of the five best players on the planet.
Possible Trade Partners
Away from the Knicks, the San Antonio Spurs, Houston Rockets, and Atlanta Hawks are the most viable trade partners.
The prospect of pairing Antetokounmpo and Victor Wembanyama is tantalizing. San Antonio has the draft assets and young players to swing a deal, though Milwaukee is likely to demand Dylan Harper and Stephon Castle, which could prove a stumbling block.
Houston could have Kevin Durant, Antetokounmpo, and Amen Thompson. Alperen Şengün would be the centerpiece, with Fred VanVleet used for salary-matching purposes. The Turk gives Milwaukee a building block (much needed with their lack of picks), but the Bucks might want several draft assets, too.
Atlanta can offer Milwaukee some control over its own future picks, including the highly valuable 2026 pick that the Hawks acquired in the Derik Queen deal. There’s no way Atlanta will include Jalen Johnson, but they have plenty of picks to include in a deal, and Milwaukee might be able to get further value by rerouting Trae Young.
Far-Fetched Scenarios
Photoshops of Giannis in a Laker uniform have been flying around even more than usual over the last couple of weeks. Even the Lakers can’t have a second miracle trade in a 12-month period.
With the restrictions posed by hard caps and the aprons, though, it’s not that outrageous that the Lakers are involved somehow. Maybe LeBron James’ salary is moved elsewhere.
There’s a good chance this is a three- or four-team deal. The salaries of Young, Ja Morant, and LaMelo Ball might be used, even if Giannis doesn’t go to Atlanta. The Knicks could need a taker for Karl-Anthony Towns. Maybe the Heat get involved and try to find a suitor for Tyler Herro.
There are four clear favorites once the Giannis sweepstakes truly get underway. Atlanta gives Giannis the best chance at the title in 2026, while joining Wembanyama would be the scariest outcome for the rest of the league.
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