We’re back with the Campus Card after a brief pause as the college football world reset for bowl and playoff season. Looking back at conference championship week, we finished an even 2–2. Texas Tech covered comfortably against BYU, and Georgia’s defense smothered Alabama, cruising to an easy under 47.5. It wasn’t all smooth sailing, though. Virginia dropped an ugly loss to Duke and missed out on a playoff spot, while Jacksonville State’s offense stalled against Kennesaw State in a surprising 19–15 defeat.
Now, with a week of rest behind us, it’s time to dig into the chaos that is the college football postseason. Today’s card features three playoff games and one midweek bowl matchup. The moneyline is a safer play with a clear talent edge, the spread targets a contender looking to rebound after a late stumble, and the total focuses on a familiar in-conference matchup between two teams that faced off recently. The gut check swings at one of the largest underdogs in the playoff field, banking on consistency and discipline to keep things respectable.
Let’s break it down.
Best Moneyline Bet
Louisville Cardinals (-235) vs Toledo Rockets
Bush’s Boca Raton Bowl
It’s tough to find value on playoff moneylines, where most games are either tight coin flips or heavily juiced favorites. Thankfully, this matchup offers a middle ground.
Toledo is no pushover at 8-4 with a 6–2 MAC record, but Louisville spent much of the season in and around the Top 25 and clearly owns the talent edge. The Cardinals will be missing a few defenders due to transfers and draft opt-outs, which is worth noting. However, Toledo is dealing with multiple defensive opt-outs as well, evening out the overall impact.
With quarterback Miller Moss confirmed to play, Louisville still projects as the more complete team. In a bowl setting like this, talent usually wins out.
The Pick: Louisville ML
Best Spread Bet
Texas A&M Aggies (-2.5) vs Miami Hurricanes
Just a few weeks ago, Texas A&M was staring at a potential playoff bye. A late loss can distort perception, and this line feels like an overcorrection.
Miami is solid, but their second half of the season did not inspire the same confidence as their early run. Meanwhile, outside of a close loss to Texas, the Aggies have looked every bit like an SEC heavyweight. Marcel Reed is the difference maker here. His versatility and explosiveness give Texas A&M an offensive ceiling Miami struggles to match with Carson Beck.
The biggest wildcard is Reuben Bain Jr., who could disrupt the Aggies’ offensive line if he consistently gets home. There’s also optimism that running back Le’Veon Moss could return, as he’s currently listed as questionable. I like Texas A&M regardless, but if Moss suits up and looks healthy, this offense should be too much for Miami to keep pace with.
The Pick: Texas A&M -2.5
Best Over/Under Bet
Alabama at Oklahoma (Under 40.5)
These two met just over a month ago in a 23-21 Oklahoma win, so the natural question is why trust the under at a lower number.
The answer is simple. Neither offense is playing well right now.
Alabama’s showing against Georgia was rough. The Crimson Tide struggled to sustain drives, Ty Simpson looked uncomfortable, and Ryan Williams was largely neutralized. Oklahoma hasn’t fared much better, scoring just 17 points in each of its last two games against Missouri and LSU.
Both teams lean heavily on defense, quarterback play has dipped on both sides, and while 40.5 is a low number, this matchup still profiles as a grind. Field position, mistakes, and conservative play-calling should dictate the tempo.
The Pick: Under 40.5
Gut Check Bet
James Madison Dukes (+21.5) at Oregon Ducks
James Madison reaching the playoff field out of the Sun Belt was not on many preseason bingo cards. Winning this game outright feels unlikely, but covering a massive spread is well within reach.
Oregon hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent by more than 21 points this season and needed a full effort to put away Washington by just 12 in their most recent game. Dante Moore has flashed talent but has also shown vulnerability, and James Madison’s offense is capable of capitalizing if those lapses show up.
If Moore has even a slightly uneven night, the Dukes can hang around long enough to keep this within two scores. That’s all you need with a number this big.
The Pick: James Madison +21.5
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