Split weeks remain the trend on the Campus Card, as we posted another 2-2 result. Our big moneyline swing did not land, with Iowa dropping yet another one score game to a ranked opponent. Our under pick in Michigan and Northwestern also crept five points over the line. The good news is that our spread plays were spot on. North Texas easily covered a massive 17.5, winning by twenty-nine, and our Georgia -6.5 gut check cruised as the Bulldogs overpowered Texas in a twenty-five point beatdown.
For Week 13, we are leaning on two short favorites, one ranked and one unranked, both sitting in great spots for bounce back wins. We also found a surprisingly low total that felt too valuable to ignore. And for the weekly gut check, we are going back to the same well and fading another disappointing SEC heavyweight that keeps sputtering when it matters.
Let’s roll through the card.
Best Moneyline Bet: SMU Mustangs (-138 vs Louisville Cardinals)
The Mustangs have been sharp the past few weeks and now come into this matchup rested after a bye. Kevin Jennings has been pretty steady, although the interceptions are higher than you would like. Even so, this team is playing well at the right time.
Louisville, on the other hand, has cooled off. Their midseason surge faded with a string of close losses, and the wind seems to be out of their sails. With both teams sitting at 7-3 in the ACC, this is a great spot for SMU to show they are the better squad. Expect the Mustangs to take this one.
Best Spread Bet: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-2.5 vs Pittsburgh Panthers)
Georgia Tech has stumbled the past two games, losing by two scores to NC State and then scraping past Boston College. The short spread reflects that recent form and carries a strong “what have you done for me lately” vibe. We are not buying it.
The Panthers are solid, but the Yellow Jackets are the more complete team and know how much this matchup matters for their season. Sitting at #16 in the polls, they cannot afford another slip. This feels like a statement opportunity after the Boston College scare. We expect a convincing Georgia Tech win.
Best Over Under Bet: Washington State at James Madison (Over 42.5)
James Madison consistently scores points and has been tough defensively, but their offense gives them the edge in the unstoppable force versus immovable object battle. If you see thirty or more coming from JMU, this over becomes extremely reachable.
Washington State is better than their 5-5 record suggests. Their offense is not explosive, but it is functional enough to produce two or three touchdowns. With such a low total for the matchup, the over feels like the right play.
Gut Check Bet: Arkansas Razorbacks (+8.5 vs Texas Longhorns)
Can this even be called a gut check if we keep fading Texas? For now, yes.
Arkansas has been the classic “careful, they might get you” team all year. They have played close games with Texas A&M, Tennessee, LSU, and several others, and they rarely lose by large margins despite their 2-8 record.
Texas continues to underperform offensively, and nothing about their current form suggests they can stretch this to a nine point win. Arkansas may not pull the outright upset, but they should keep this within one score.
