The final week of the CFB regular season wasn’t kind to the Campus Card, as we went 1-3 with a couple of tight losses (and one truly unexpected one). Ole Miss handled Mississippi State with ease, covering the -7.5 spread and giving us our lone winner. Unfortunately, Utah missed the -11.5 by a single point, the Buckeyes–Wolverines over fell short with Michigan scoring only nine, and Texas A&M’s season-altering loss to Texas ended our split-week streak.
Now we head into Conference Championship week, where familiar opponents often create razor-thin margins. With that in mind, we are leaning into some classic conference tendencies: a short moneyline, a wide favorite, and an under that banks on SEC defensive history. And for our gut check of the week, we are backing a slight underdog in one of the most overlooked matchups on the slate.
Best Moneyline Bet: Virginia Cavaliers (-176 vs Duke Blue Devils)
Virginia and Duke have both had strange, uneven seasons. Virginia mixed a few ugly losses with a bunch of nailbiting wins, while Duke’s early-season surge faded down the stretch. But the stakes here could not be higher: the ACC is at real risk of missing the playoff entirely unless Virginia wins.
The Blue Devils have looked solid recently against lesser opponents, but Virginia beat them decisively just a few weeks ago, and the Cavaliers come in fresh off a strong showing against Virginia Tech. With a playoff berth on the line and a proven track record in close games, Virginia feels like the right side in a matchup they should control late.
Best Spread Bet: Texas Tech Red Raiders (-12.5 vs BYU Cougars)
Outside of the lopsided JMU–Troy matchup, Texas Tech is the biggest favorite of Championship Week, and the spread makes sense. The Red Raiders’ front seven is a nightmare for offenses that lack depth, and BYU is about as top-heavy as it gets.
The Cougars rely heavily on QB Bear Bachmeier in the air and on the ground, and their passing attack does not go much deeper than their top two receivers and TE Carsen Ryan. LJ Martin has been productive, but the offense is not versatile enough to threaten a defense as disciplined and disruptive as Texas Tech’s. Expect pressure, turnovers, and a game that slowly tilts toward the Red Raiders.
BYU will fight, but Tech has too many advantages for this not to separate.
Best Over/Under Bet: Georgia at Alabama (Under 47.5)
This matchup wasn’t expected as recently as a week ago, but here we are. Georgia-Alabama has all the makings of a classic SEC defensive battle, and 48 points feels high.
Georgia hasn’t played in a game that cleared 48 total points since early November, and the last time these two teams met, the under would have hit comfortably. With Georgia fighting for a first-round bye and Alabama trying to solidify its place in the playoff, this projects as a physical, low-scoring, field-position game.
The under makes sense.
Gut Check Bet: Jacksonville State Gamecocks (+114 vs Kennesaw State Owls)
It won’t draw many eyeballs, but Jacksonville State feels like a live underdog in this matchup.
The Gamecocks feature the nation’s leading rusher in Cam Cook and have a real chance to set the tone early. With Cook controlling the ground game and quarterback Caden Creel adding another rushing threat, this could be a long day for a Kennesaw State defense that ranks 102nd nationally in rushing yards allowed against FBS opponents.
You may not watch it, but the value is there. We’re trusting our gut.
Want more Sandman? Come connect with us here at sandmansports.com/staging/8269/onestopshop
