Teams are approaching the 25-game mark, and almost a third of the way through the regular season, the NBA MVP race is really starting to take shape.
Injuries have effectively ruled Giannis Antetokounmpo and Victor Wembanyama out of contention. Three perennial MVP candidates occupy the podium as it stands, but it’s the bottom part of a theoretical ballot that becomes more interesting.
There’s the balance of team record, with the Pistons still leading the Eastern Conference. Then there’s the heavy lifting being done by Anthony Edwards as the pseudo point guard of the Timberwolves.
Here’s how our ballot would look if the season ended today.
1. Nikola Jokić
Three-time league MVP Nikola Jokić has an emphatic lead in VORP and tops the leaderboards for BPM and win shares. His assist rate is the best in the NBA, he’s 10th in rebounding rate, and A.J. Green is the only player with a higher true shooting percentage.
The Joker is averaging a historic 29.2, 12.3, and 11. He tops the rebounding and assist charts, while sitting fifth in scoring. Since winning his last MVP in 2023-24, Jokić has somehow become an even more complete player, with marked increases in his three-point volume, three-point efficiency, and assist totals.
Denver is +11.9 with Jokić on the floor. He’s already got 11 triple-doubles, two 40-point games, and a 50-piece.
The fact Jokić has improved markedly since winning three MVPs in four years is one of the most remarkable trends in league history. If he maintains this production, he should comfortably win a fourth MVP, putting him level with Wilt Chamberlain and LeBron James.
2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
The Thunder have the highest net rating in NBA history. Their 23-1 start puts them firmly on course to break the regular season wins record. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the reigning MVP, has once again been superlative, averaging 32.8 points per game on an efficiency that dwarves his 2024-25 mark.
Anyone still wedded to the ‘best player on the best team’ theory will be voting for Gilgeous-Alexander.
Advanced metrics have Gilgeous-Alexander as the only player in the same stratosphere as Jokić. He trails the Nuggets’ star in VORP, BPM, and win shares, but the gap is marginal in the latter two.
There will inevitably be momentum behind Gilgeous-Alexander if the Thunder win 70+ games as looks likely. When it comes to truly being ‘most valuable’, though, it’s hard to make a case for SGA when the Thunder are +9.1 per 100 possessions when he’s off the court.
3. Cade Cunningham
Cade Cunningham is fifth in assist rate. His 6.4 rebounds per game are a good return for an offensive engine. He’s notably getting to the line 2.5 times more per game than he did last season, putting him eighth in free throw attempts per game.
Jokić is the only player averaging more assists per contest. Cunningham is 11th in scoring. Detroit are only just treading water (+0.1 net rating) when Cunningham isn’t on the floor yet are 19-5 and outscore opponents by 7.9 points per 100 possessions when he’s on the court.
The Pistons are sitting atop the Eastern Conference. Given their dependence on the former first overall pick, there should be no question he’s been the East’s most valuable player so far this season, even with an uncharacteristic 29.9% mark from three.
4. Luka Dončić
Leading the NBA in scoring, joint-12th in rebounding, and third in assists per game, Luka Dončić’s numbers are gaudy, even relative to his high standards.
Along with the breakout performances of Austin Reaves, Dončić has carried the Lakers to a 17-6 start. Los Angeles is an elite offense with Dončić and has been massively dependent on the Slovenian (the Lakers are -2.3 per 100 possessions when Dončić is on the bench).
The Lakers need to somehow post considerably more regular season wins than the Nuggets for Dončić to win this award.
5. Tyrese Maxey
The Sixers are 10.9 points better per 100 possessions with Tyrese Maxey on the floor. Philly’s offense craters without Maxey, who is third in scoring, second in three-point makes, and eighth in assists per game.
Maxey’s presence has kept the Sixers above .500 amid Joel Embiid looking creaky, Paul George missing time, and VJ Edgecombe enduring the inconsistencies that hit many rookies.
It’s concerning for Philly’s medium- and long-term hopes that Maxey is leading the league in minutes at 39.9. His high workload has helped him to post numbers that would warrant some down-ballot MVP support if the season ended today.