Twelve teams are in the College Football Playoff field, but only one will finish the season as national champion. This ranking is not about who is best on a neutral field. It is about who has the roster, quarterback, coaching, and path most likely to survive the CFP and win it all. Here is how the field stacks up.

1. Ohio State Buckeyes

Even though Indiana beat Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship, the Buckeyes remain the most likely team to win the national title. The blue chip ratio still matters, especially in the playoff, and Ohio State has one of the strongest rosters in the country. As impressive as Indiana’s defense has been, Mendoza was not dominant against the Buckeyes, and that matters when projecting multiple elite matchups. Ohio State has been here before, and it would not be surprising to see them end up in the same position as last season.

2. Indiana Hoosiers

I was tempted to put Indiana at the top, but it is hard to completely ignore some roster concerns and the challenge of winning three straight high level games. The Hoosiers rank 45th in blue chip ratio, which is not ideal historically. That said, they have the best quarterback in the country, an elite receiving corps, a solid running game, and a top tier defense. As the top seed, Indiana is set up well to make a deep run, and if Mendoza stays hot, they are absolutely capable of winning it all.

3. Oregon Ducks

Dan Lanning may say publicly that he wanted to play in last week’s title game, but the Ducks are likely thrilled to sit at the five seed. Oregon gets what amounts to a tune up game against James Madison before traveling to Miami to face Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are a good team, but among the bye teams, that is a favorable draw. Unlike last season, Oregon is flying a bit under the radar, and the way they closed the year makes them a dangerous opponent.

4. Georgia Bulldogs

Georgia likely draws a rematch with Ole Miss in the second round, but this time without Lane Kiffin on the opposing sideline. There is some uncertainty around the Bulldogs, yet they still feel like a team nobody wants to face. Ole Miss nearly pulled off the upset in Athens earlier this season, but this Georgia defense is playing its best football at the right time. That alone keeps them firmly in the title conversation.

5. Texas Tech Red Raiders

This is not a typical Big 12 team. Texas Tech used the transfer portal aggressively to build a roster capable of beating quality opponents late in the season. Their defense can create real problems, and they land on what I would consider the more favorable side of the bracket. If you are not familiar with this team, do not underestimate them. They are built to win playoff style games.

6. Alabama Crimson Tide

The running game has been a problem, but Alabama has a long history of showing up when it matters most. They open with Oklahoma in Norman, a team very similar to themselves in terms of strengths and weaknesses. If they take care of business there, they would get Indiana in the Rose Bowl, and while Alabama has the more talented roster, they would need to prove it on the field. The path is difficult, but the ceiling is still high.

7. Ole Miss Rebels

Ole Miss has one of the most dangerous offenses in the country, but losing Lane Kiffin is a real factor. That said, Charlie Weis Jr. has been calling plays for years, so a drastic shift should not be expected. The Rebels benefit from a favorable first round matchup against Tulane, which makes advancing likely. The next three teams are in a similar tier, but Ole Miss gets the edge due to path and offensive firepower.

8. Texas A&M Aggies

Texas A&M and Miami feel nearly identical to me, but the Aggies get the slight edge thanks to home field advantage in the opening round. When they are playing their best football, they can beat anyone. The problem is consistency. Their path is brutal, potentially requiring wins over Miami, Ohio State, and Georgia, which makes their title chances difficult to project.

9. Miami Hurricanes

Miami has to travel to Kyle Field for a playoff game, which is about as tough an assignment as you can draw. At least it is a noon kickoff instead of a night game. Like Texas A&M, Miami looks like a national title contender at its best, but turnovers have been an issue at quarterback. They will face adversity quickly, and how they respond will define their ceiling.

10. Oklahoma Sooners

Oklahoma’s defense is among the best in the country, but the offense lags far behind. They have won several games riding their front seven, but that formula becomes much harder against playoff caliber opponents. If John Mateer can recapture the form he showed before his injury, Oklahoma could be dangerous. Until then, it is hard to see a deep run.

11. Tulane Green Wave

There will always be a talent gap for the Group of Five representative, and Tulane is no exception. They are a strong team by those standards, but the path to a national title is steep. Earning a spot in the field is an accomplishment, but anything beyond that would be a major surprise.

12. James Madison Dukes

I would love to be proven wrong, but it is difficult to see James Madison pushing Oregon in any meaningful way. The Dukes have handled their schedule, but their best wins did not come against top tier competition. We can pretend the Power Four and Group of Five are playing the same game, but they are not. Making the playoff is a success on its own.