We have reached conference championship week in college football, and most of the teams currently in playoff position can rest comfortably. However, a few teams will be nervously watching and waiting as other results determine their fate.
Most of these contenders have had their chances already, with one notable exception. Regardless, all of them will be hoping things break their way on Friday and Saturday as they fight for a chance at the sport’s biggest stage. Here is who has the most to gain, or lose, during Championship Week.
James Madison (11-1)
For the Dukes to spend Saturday scoreboard watching, they first need to handle business on Friday. If they beat Troy, they would at least have a chance to make the College Football Playoff, which is borderline unbelievable for a program that was in FCS just four years ago.
Their chances depend on two things: how the CFP committee views them compared to the polls and what happens in the ACC Championship. Their major flaw is that their one loss came to Louisville, which stumbled to an 8-4 finish. Madison sits at No. 19 in the human polls but remains unranked by the CFP committee.
That is a major issue. Right now they are not in position for the Group of 5 automatic bid, which will likely go to either Tulane or North Texas. And with Virginia ranked ahead of them, the Dukes are out of luck if the Cavaliers win the ACC. But if Duke beats Virginia and becomes the ACC champion at 8-5, the door opens.
As a reminder, the CFP currently awards automatic selections to the five highest-ranked conference champions and the next seven highest-ranked teams, meaning Power 4 leagues are not necessarily guaranteed a spot.
Thus, would the committee really take a 12-1 team with a loss to the ACC’s seventh place team over the 8-5 ACC champion? The ACC would rather not find out. James Madison will be rooting hard for Duke to create chaos. The ACC will be rooting even harder for Virginia to avoid it.
Miami (10-2)
There is a reason “Always Consider Chaos” exists in ACC football. Strangely enough, there is a scenario where the ACC Champion is left out of the playoff, yet Miami makes it as an at-large.
For that to happen, Miami needs the opposite of chaos. They need Georgia to beat Alabama and Texas Tech to beat BYU. If that happens, Miami could rise to No. 10 overall. The team directly above the number ten spot is Notre Dame, which Miami beat head-to-head in Week 1.
So far the committee has treated Miami and Notre Dame as if they exist in different tiers despite identical records. If the committee wants schools to schedule tough games, it has to reward teams that win them. Taking Notre Dame while ignoring Miami’s head-to-head win sends exactly the wrong message.
The committee’s nightmare is if one of Alabama and BYU wins and the other loses. If both lose, there is room for both Miami and Notre Dame. If only one loses, the committee will be forced to take a stand that could shape scheduling philosophy for years.
Oklahoma (10-2)
The Sooners did not look great against LSU, while Notre Dame continues to smash everyone. It would not be surprising to see the committee jump the Irish ahead of Oklahoma.
If that happens, the Sooners have to sweat. Because of automatic bids, only the top ten teams can qualify. If BYU wins, that becomes nine. Oklahoma’s win over Alabama carries weight, but it does not help if Alabama wins the SEC and takes the automatic bid. Even though Oklahoma beat Alabama and Georgia would not have, Georgia at two losses is still likely ahead of a two loss Oklahoma.
Oklahoma needs Georgia to finally get Alabama solved. Since 2016, Georgia is 1-7 against the Tide and 107-8 against everyone else. If Alabama beats Georgia again, Oklahoma is probably out.
Vanderbilt (10-2)
Vanderbilt probably does not have a realistic path to the playoff, but it is not impossible. For the Commodores to sneak in, the committee would need to view them as more impressive than Utah (likely) and Miami (less likely). Then they would need Texas Tech to beat BYU and Georgia to blow out Alabama.
The last part is essential because Alabama beat Vanderbilt head-to-head. A close Alabama loss still keeps the Tide ahead of Vandy. But if Georgia wins convincingly, Vanderbilt could jump into the discussion.
It still feels unlikely. There are too many high quality resumes this season. Someone good is getting left out, and Vanderbilt is the most likely. But the fact that the Commodores are even legitimately on the radar two years after being a national punchline is remarkable.
Duke (7-5)
Duke will be playing on Saturday, but they will be watching Friday night with serious interest. By kickoff, they could go from ACC spoiler to playoff bid thief.
Everything about James Madison’s chances only applies if the Dukes win on Friday. If Troy wins, the Sun Belt champ is eliminated from playoff contention. That means the next one up is UNLV, which must beat Boise State. If Boise wins, the Mountain West champ is out too. In that scenario, if Duke beats Virginia, the Blue Devils become the last champion standing.
That is the ACC’s nightmare. If James Madison or UNLV wins, Duke could knock the ACC out entirely if they upset Virginia. But if both games on Friday result in upsets, Duke at 8-5 gets in over a 9-4 Troy or a 9-4 Boise State. The American champion, either Tulane or North Texas, gets in no matter what.
The ACC does not want Duke in the playoff. They would likely get overwhelmed. Duke lost at Connecticut, lost at Tulane, and lost at home to Illinois by 26. That paints a very clear picture of what would happen at Oregon or Texas Tech. But a Duke blowout loss is still better for the ACC than getting shut out entirely.
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