Week 11 was one to forget. We went 0-3 and were reminded once again just how strange this NFL season has been. The Chargers got blown out by Jacksonville, the Buccaneers could not keep the Bills out of the end zone, and the Seahawks and Rams turned into a defensive slugfest instead of a shootout. You take it on the chin, reset, and move on. So let’s do that.
We are taking some big swings in Week 12. One moneyline underdog that feels more like the favorite, one divisional spread bet with a team looking to spark its passing game, and one low under based on a shaky quarterback situation. And as for the pass of the week, you will understand the second you see the matchup.
Best Moneyline of the Week: Colts (+156 @ Chiefs)
If you saw this number in August you would have laughed. But here we are. The Colts come off a bye, rested and prepared, heading into a matchup with a Chiefs team that just took an emotional loss to Denver. Indianapolis has a tough defense and Kansas City’s offense no longer looks unstoppable. This game comes down to whether Daniel Jones can limit mistakes and set up Jonathan Taylor for success. I expect he will, and I expect the Colts to cash this ticket.
Best Spread of the Week: Eagles (-3.5 @ Cowboys)
Division games are tricky because familiarity levels the playing field. Even so, this line feels lighter than it should be. Philadelphia is the better team and this matchup is tailor made for the Eagles to wake up their passing attack. Reports of frustration inside the locker room may or may not be true, but AJ Brown clearly wants the ball and Dallas has the exact type of defense that allows strong passing attacks to get healthy. The Cowboys can score, but they cannot keep pace for four quarters. Philadelphia covers comfortably.
Best Over-Under of the Week: Steelers @ Bears (U44.5)
Chicago keeps winning but rarely scores more than the low to mid twenties. Now they draw a Steelers defense that tightens in the red zone and forces teams to grind out every inch. On the other side, Pittsburgh will be starting either a banged up Aaron Rodgers or Mason Rudolph. Neither quarterback is likely to open things up for DK Metcalf, and the Bears should crowd the line to slow down Jaylen Warren. This feels like a low scoring grind, so we are taking the under.
Game to Pass on: Browns @ Raiders
This might be one of the worst games of the season and it could go in any direction. Dillon Gabriel’s early spark is fading as defenses adjust, and Geno Smith has been one of the least effective quarterbacks in the league. Whichever rookie running back gets rolling between Quinshon Judkins and Ashton Jeanty probably decides this one, but there is no trustworthy angle here. Staying away is the smart play.
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