Well, tough Week 12 as we go 0-3 on our Three Picks. Indianapolis lost a close one as Kansas City kicked a game winner in OT to keep us from hitting on the underdog, and Philly could not cover the spread (or win the game) as they lost to Dallas 24-21. Philly’s offense has hit a new low with only a 21 point output against one of the worst defenses in the NFL, and it creates some concern for bets going forward. Meanwhile, our under bet fails as the Bears allow a Mason Rudolph-led team to put up 28 points while surprisingly scoring 31 against a decent Steelers red-zone defense.
This week, we are doing two things: looking for a bounceback and fully embracing the chaos that has defined the 2025-26 season. We are focusing on large mismatches in our moneyline and spread, avoiding tight lines or potential value underdog plays. For our O/U of the week, we are targeting a divisional game that should stay low scoring thanks to one team leaning heavily on the run game and the other struggling to move the ball. And for our pass of the week, we are staying away from a matchup between a team riding a streak of close wins and another that is underperforming at the worst possible time.
Best Moneyline of the Week: Denver Broncos (-280 at Washington Commanders)
Both teams are coming off a bye week, which will make some bettors hesitant, but this matchup between a 9-2 Broncos team and a 3-8 Commanders team is still one of the safest moneylines available that does not break the -300 threshold. Jayden Daniels is still week-to-week and unlikely to return, so if Washington rolls out Mariota again, it is hard to imagine him solving this elite Broncos defense. Bo Nix has been inconsistent, but Denver has too much firepower on defense for Washington to keep pace.
Best Spread of the Week: LA Rams (-10.5 at Carolina Panthers)
Based on the trajectory of these two teams, and especially their Week 12 results, -10.5 might not be anywhere near enough. The Panthers are much improved from last season, but they still have major issues on both sides of the ball. The Rams, meanwhile, are enjoying a renaissance Stafford season that could end with an MVP trophy. Their passing game is dangerous, but expect a heavy dose of Kyren Williams once they get ahead. After crushing Tampa Bay by 27, it is easy to see the Rams winning this game by 14 or more.
Best Over Under of the Week: Raiders at Chargers (Under 41.5)
Divisional games tend to be tight, and these two teams look built for a low scoring affair. The Chargers are leaning heavily on the run game with Kimani Vidal most likely stepping in again for the still injured Omarion Hampton. The Raiders, meanwhile, just fired OC Chip Kelly, making their offense even less trustworthy than before. This has all the ingredients of a 20-3 style game and looks like one of the cleanest unders on the board.
Game to Pass On: Bears at Eagles
Only a few weeks ago, this would have felt like a straightforward bet. Now it is one of the biggest landmines on the board. The Eagles remain wildly inconsistent. Every time they appear to be rolling, the offense puts up a baffling performance that leaves you questioning their ceiling. The Bears, meanwhile, are the kings of close games this season, winning tight ones every week. With no confidence on either side, we are staying far away, and we recommend you do the same.
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