It was a slight step forward for Three Picks and a Pass, as we squeaked out a 1-2 record. The Broncos bailed us out with a one point overtime win on the moneyline. Unfortunately, we picked the wrong week to trust the Rams, who fell into a trap game and lost outright to Carolina. And while our under in the Raiders and Chargers looked great at halftime, a 24 point second half from the Raiders defense ruined it.
This week we are taking a few calculated swings. We are backing two underdogs, one whose line could shift depending on an injury update and another whose number simply does not match what they have shown all season. Our favorite over under leans on elite quarterbacks and banged up defenses. Our pass of the week features two struggling teams with rookie quarterbacks in a true toss up. Let’s lock in and chase that 3-0 card.
Best Moneyline of the Week: Washington Commanders (+108 at Minnesota Vikings)
This pick is all about the quarterback situations. Washington looked competent against Denver with Marcus Mariota managing things, and there is a decent chance Jayden Daniels returns. He is still day to day and has not been cleared for contact yet, but even the possibility adds upside.
Minnesota, on the other hand, has the worst quarterback room in the league right now. JJ McCarthy and Max Brosmer both look overwhelmed, and the offense is sputtering because of it. The Commanders are not a great team, but they are playing better football than Minnesota at the moment, and that alone gives us value at plus money.
Best Spread of the Week: Chicago Bears (+6.5 at Green Bay Packers)
We have avoided betting the Bears most of the year because they live in the world of one score chaos. This is the right time to jump in.
Green Bay is coming off a great showing against Detroit, and plenty of people still doubt Chicago’s recent run. But getting plus six and a half with the current number one team in the NFC is too much value to ignore. The Bears consistently keep games tight and usually find a way late. Even if this goes to the final possession, which it probably will, Chicago is more than capable of staying inside the number.
Sometimes you have to trust the team that keeps proving it can deliver.
Best Over Under of the Week: Bengals at Bills (Over 53.5)
Joe Burrow is back, and the entire Bengals offense immediately looked revived against Baltimore. There is still a little rust, but the passing game is about to take off. Buffalo should also take advantage of one of the worst defenses in the NFL.
Injuries matter too. The Bills will likely be without key defenders Terrel Bernard and Joey Bosa. Their absence leaves the defense thin against an offense that is heating up. Everything points to a shootout in this early window matchup.
Game to Pass On: Titans at Browns
Two rookie quarterbacks. Two bad offenses. Two teams with no rhythm and no consistency.
Tennessee has been nearly unwatchable, with no clear identity or direction. Cleveland continues to roll with Shedeur Sanders, who has talent but remains unpredictable. Nothing about this matchup gives us a confident angle. The smart move is to stay away.
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