Another 1-2 week for TPP, with one pick barely missing and another missing badly. Our Bills-Bengals over cruised home as the two teams combined for 73 points. The Bears came heartbreakingly close to covering +6.5, losing by seven in a tight divisional matchup. And our moneyline? Jayden Daniels returned… and it didn’t matter. Washington got steamrolled 31-0 by the JJ McCarthy led Vikings. Hard to get uglier than that.

This week, we’re grabbing value in a divisional moneyline, doubling down on last week’s spread pick but in a much better spot, and sticking with one of our O/U angles until proven otherwise. And we’re passing on an AFC West matchup between two teams that feel completely lost three quarters into the season.

Best Moneyline of the Week: Carolina Panthers (-158 at New Orleans Saints)

Carolina sits at a respectable 7-6, has proven it can beat quality opponents, and looks like one of the more quietly improved teams in the league. The Saints… do not.

Despite the win last week, New Orleans is still a bad team. While Tyler Shough hasn’t been disastrous, this offense is inconsistent, at best, and has trouble keeping pace against most defensive units. Coming off a bye and a statement win over the Rams, Carolina is well-positioned for another division victory. This matchup is exactly the type of game where the Panthers usually show up.

Best Spread of the Week: Chicago Bears (-7.5 at Cleveland Browns)

Yes, the Bears burned us last week, but this matchup is nothing like facing Green Bay.

Cleveland just lost to the terrible Titans, who looked like the worst offense in football until that moment. Shedeur Sanders has been better than expected, but this team still has major issues across the board. Chicago is a game out of first place and desperate to bounce back. This is the perfect get-right spot against a Browns team that is simply overmatched.

Best Over Under of the Week: Ravens at Bengals (Over 51.5)

Joe Burrow is back, and until proven otherwise, Bengals games are automatic over considerations. Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase look fully synced again, and this Baltimore defense just allowed 27 points to an aging Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers.

Cincinnati feels capable of dropping 35 on their own in this matchup. The only risk is Lamar Jackson having another rough outing, but with the Ravens fighting for their playoff lives, we expect a sharper effort. In a Burrow vs. Lamar showdown, 52 points feels well within reach.

Game to Pass On: LA Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs

Both teams looked rough last week. The Chargers won despite themselves. The Chiefs look tired, out of rhythm, and overly dependent on Mahomes playing hero ball. Herbert looks unsettled too, and neither offense inspires confidence right now.Either team could pop this week… or both could stay stuck in neutral. Too much volatility, not enough clarity. Skip it and move on.