The 1-2 weeks keep rolling along here at TPP. Chicago took care of business in a big way, blowing out the Browns and covering the -7.5 spread with a 31-3 win. Unfortunately, that’s where the good news ended. Carolina missed a prime opportunity to seize control of the NFC South with a 20-17 loss to New Orleans, and the Bengals were shockingly shut out by Baltimore, falling 24-0 and sinking both our moneyline and over/under plays.

This week, we’re approaching the board from a few different angles. The moneyline targets a top AFC team looking to bounce back after a tough divisional loss. The spread is a return to a matchup that paid dividends last week. The total focuses on a potential playoff-defining divisional game between two teams coming off poor performances. And for our pass of the week, it’s a quarterback situation that screams volatility, so we want no part of it.

Best Moneyline of the Week

New England Patriots (+130 at Baltimore Ravens)

Drake Maye had a rough outing against Buffalo, and even then, the Bills barely escaped with a 35-31 win. At this point, Buffalo is simply a better team than Baltimore, and it’s unlikely Maye turns in another performance that poor.

Lamar Jackson has been inconsistent this season, and Mike Vrabel will have a far more disciplined defensive plan than what Cincinnati showed last week. Viewed from a broader lens, this feels like a team on the rise facing a contender that may be starting to lose its edge. New England needs this win to keep Buffalo from overtaking the AFC East, and I expect them to approach this game with urgency.

Best Spread of the Week

Buffalo Bills (-10.5 at Cleveland Browns)

We’re going right back to picking on the Browns. With rookie Shedeur Sanders doing his best under center, Cleveland’s offense is a tough sell against just about any defense. Josh Allen is playing at an elite level, and while Myles Garrett is having a phenomenal season, Allen’s mobility and pocket awareness help neutralize that threat.

Cleveland looked completely lost against Chicago, while Buffalo is coming off a massive divisional win. On paper, this matchup projects to finish with a wider margin than 11 points. If the Browns defense somehow plays a near-perfect game, this could get interesting. But if the bet comes down to Josh Allen versus Cleveland’s defense, I’m siding with Allen every time.

Best Over/Under of the Week

Buccaneers at Panthers (Over 45.5)

This is a pivotal NFC South matchup, with both Tampa Bay and Carolina sitting at 7-7 atop the division. The Buccaneers offense looked much closer to its early-season form now that Mike Evans is back, while the defense, frankly, was a mess.

Carolina is coming off a divisional loss to New Orleans, and their defense has been shaky all season. Dave Canales should be able to scheme open receivers and give Bryce Young clear throwing windows against a Tampa Bay defense that Todd Bowles appears to be struggling to rein in. Picking a winner here is tricky, but it would be surprising if this game stays under 50 points. I’m riding the over.

Game to Pass On

Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans

One of the worst teams in the league against a Gardner Minshew-led Kansas City offense is not a game I’m interested in touching. There are simply too many possible outcomes.

The Chiefs offense could explode. The Titans could control possession and shorten the game. Or it could devolve into a sloppy mess that ends with a bizarre 6-3 final. There is no confident projection here, and when that’s the case, the best bet is no bet at all.

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